動區BlockTempo

After the outbreak of war between the US and Iran, the Hormuz Strait was nearly completely blocked, and Iraq's oil production decreased by over two-thirds, causing global oil prices to surge past $100. This is the most severe energy supply shock since the 1970s and could lead to a roughly 10% decrease in global demand. Additionally, supplies of commodities such as aluminum and fertilizers have also been affected, posing a long-term crisis risk to the global economy, especially impacting the Eurasian market.

WBC World Baseball Classic Group C's final game will be held tonight. South Korea needs to beat Australia to give the Chinese Taipei team a chance to advance, and must achieve an 8:3 point difference. Polymarket shows South Korea's win probability at 73%, but Chinese Taipei's advancement still depends on South Korea's performance. Despite the strong showing in the prediction market, there is still uncertainty in the situation.

Starcloud plans to install Bitcoin ASIC miners on the second spaceship, aiming to become the first company to mine cryptocurrency in space. CEO Philip Johnston believes that Earth-based mining is not sustainable, but this venture faces high costs, technical challenges, and stability issues. Although they have successfully launched a satellite equipped with NVIDIA GPUs, many difficulties remain to be solved before moving from engineering experiments to large-scale operations.

Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo believes that American banks are unable to develop cryptocurrency businesses due to unclear regulations, but this argument requires multiple premises. Giancarlo mentioned the competitive pressure from Asia and Europe and the progress of the CLARITY Act, pointing out that regulatory uncertainty is not the only obstacle. Additionally, his claim needs to meet conditions such as the necessity for banks to enter the crypto market, which currently lacks sufficient evidence to support.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury recently acknowledged for the first time in a report the legitimate privacy uses of cryptocurrency mixers and suggested that Congress establish a "Freezing Law" to temporarily freeze suspicious digital assets. The report states that legitimate users can utilize these tools to protect financial privacy, but also expresses concerns about money laundering risks associated with non-custodial mixers. The debate over privacy issues continues, and the legal responsibilities of open-source tool developers remain unclear.

Raoul Pal points out 12 reasons for the expansion of global liquidity during market pessimism, believing that the crypto market is about to reverse. He mentions factors such as the rebound in US fiscal liquidity and policy bullishness, and emphasizes that the market bottom could be confirmed within two weeks. The only risk is rising oil prices, with an expectation that they will move upward in the future.

The Iran conflict has entered its second week. After the reopening of traditional markets, crude oil prices have risen from the predicted $92 by Hyperliquid to $112, indicating the correct direction but underestimating the magnitude. Hyperliquid is currently driven by retail investors, and its lack of liquidity limits its value to an emotional indicator, preventing it from becoming an accurate pricing benchmark.

Bitcoin has fallen from its high of $68,200 to $66,323; Ethereum also declined to $2,073. In the past 24 hours, futures liquidations reached $342 million, and the market fear index dropped to 8, indicating extreme panic. Rising oil prices have boosted the US dollar, affecting the valuation of risk assets. Asian stock markets also generally declined, and the market is facing a consolidation vacuum period.

Iran's blockade of the Hormuz Strait has caused a surge in global oil prices, with 150 ships stranded outside the shipping lane. Although there are three alternative pipelines available for supply, they can only meet 25%-35% of the demand, making it difficult to resolve the oil supply crisis. Taiwan's natural gas reserves are only enough for 11 days, facing fuel supply pressure, leading to intense volatility in the global market.