夜爷在厦门

BlackRock's BTC holdings have surged past 792,000 BTC, with net inflows exceeding $320 million (approximately 433 BTC) in the last 24 hours, serving as the core bullish force driving this price breakthrough to 74,000;
◦ Continuous net inflows of approximately $45 million over the past 3 hours with no outflows to exchanges, highly stable position structure, and exceptionally strong institutional buying interest;
◦ Core market maker Jane Street has continuously swept orders in the 73,500-74,000 range, with buy-side order book volume 35% higher than sell-side, actively pushing prices higher.

BTC has fallen from the intraday high of $67,229.9 to $65,508.1, a daily decline of 2.43%. It broke below the key support of the daily EMA5, short-term bullish structure is damaged, the 4-hour chart confirms a MACD death cross, indicating the release of band-wide bearish momentum, and the 1-hour chart has entered a serious oversold zone. Overall, this is a technical correction after a rebound, and the long-term core logic of the halving expectation remains intact. There is strong support around $64,200 below, and a technical rebound could be triggered at any time after overselling.

2026.1.15
Phew, I hit a stop-loss during a heavy Bitcoin position. Originally $10,000, it went up to $60,000, and just as I hit the stop-loss, the order took effect perfectly. I lost a little, and then profit started to accumulate. So frustrating. It would be better if they just displayed historical data directly, instead of me having to see how to draw a V pattern. Anyway, I’m serious about trading. Feel free to follow me~

Market expectations that the US January CPI data will cool down dominate (probability of 85%), combined with institutional pre-positioning based on this expectation. BTC is temporarily supported by macroeconomic positive factors. Even if the CPI slightly exceeds expectations, the downside is strictly limited due to institutional control and a long-term bullish trend.
By the way, updating the order-following data. It has returned to 20,000+

Regarding the current position over the past couple of days, I made a mistake right after opening the position. I didn't withdraw funds first and instead heavily invested in BTC during a deep washout, which caused these data to look abnormally bad.. I can only rely on time to make up for it🤣. Take it slow, don't be disappointed in me, just some minor setbacks along the way.

Judgment conclusion: The main upward wave in the technical aspect has accelerated and broken through confirmation. Dune on-chain data verifies the authenticity, health, and sustainability of the rise. Currently, it is in the stage of accelerated breakthrough led by institutions, with a very strong medium-term trend.

Judgment conclusion: The technical breakout of the middle Bollinger Band confirms a rebound and enters an acceleration phase. Short-term moving average support, narrowing MACD green bars, and strong KDJ rally jointly verify the upward momentum. Currently in the early stage of acceleration, a breakthrough will lead to an attack on the previous high.

Analysis conclusion: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour cycles have formed a combination of "Bollinger support + MACD momentum stabilization/strengthening + KDJ rebound accumulation/trend continuation," indicating a higher probability of short-term rebound; 93,761.2 USD (1-hour EMA5) and 93,642.4 USD (4-hour EMA5) are strong short-term supports, with a very low probability of breaking below. After stabilization, the price is expected to break through 94,672.7 USD (1-hour Bollinger upper band) and 94,741.5 USD (previous high), confirming a medium-term bullish trend and opening up space.

Analysis conclusion: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour cycles have formed a combination of "Bollinger support + MACD momentum strengthening + KDJ trend continuation," indicating a higher probability of short-term rebound; the short-term strong support levels are at $94,064.9 (1-hour EMA5) and $93,564.0 (4-hour EMA5), with a very low probability of breaking below. After stabilization, the price is expected to break through $94,790.9 (1-hour Bollinger upper band) and $94,741.5 (previous high), confirming a medium-term bullish trend and opening up space for gains.
Price risk control:
◦ Immediate support

Risk Control Points and Trend Outlook
1. Price Risk Control:
◦ Immediate Support Level: 94,049.6 USD (1-hour EMA5), a break triggers a very slight fluctuation of 0.3%-0.5% (targeting the 94,000 USD integer level);
◦ Strong Support Level: 93,582.5 USD (4-hour EMA5), probability of break <3%;
◦ Resistance Levels: 94,741.5 USD (previous high) and 94,800 USD (market maker profit-taking zone), a breakout above targets the 95,000 USD integer level.
2. Position Risk Control: Maintain spot holdings at 80%-90%, leverage trading can add small positions below 94,000 USD (no more than 10% of total positio

Judgment conclusion: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour cycles have formed a combination of "Bollinger Band breakout + MACD momentum strengthening + KDJ trend continuation," indicating a low probability of short-term pullback and strong upward momentum; $94,029.7 USD (1-hour EMA5) and $93,324.8 USD (4-hour EMA5) serve as short-term strong supports, with a very low probability of falling below. After stabilizing, the price is expected to break through $94,485.5 USD (previous high) and the $95,000 USD integer level, confirming a medium-term bullish trend and opening up space.

Judgment conclusion: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour cycles have formed a combination of "Bollinger support/breakout + MACD momentum strengthening + KDJ rebound accumulation/trend continuation," indicating a higher probability of short-term rebound; 93,104.1 USD (1-hour EMA5) and 92,676.3 USD (4-hour EMA5) are strong short-term supports, with a very low probability of breaking below. After stabilizing, the price is expected to break through 93,803.1 USD (1-hour Bollinger upper band) and the 94,000 USD integer level, confirming a medium-term bullish trend and opening up space.

Core Insights from the Market Maker Perspective
1. Support is Precise and Effective: Jump Trading and Jane Street form a "dense support zone" between 92,000-92,800 USD, with large single buy orders (≥100 BTC) accounting for 88%, successfully keeping the washout within 50 USD.
2. Institutional-Market Maker Collaboration: Galaxy Digital collaborates with Fidelity and HashKey to accumulate positions between 92,000-92,100 USD. The ISI (Institutional-Market Maker Synchronization Index) reaches 99.0 (very high synchronization), confirming strategic cooperation between institutions and market makers.

Immediate support level: 92,812.1 USD (1-hour EMA5), a break below triggers a very slight fluctuation of 0.3%-0.5% (targeting the 92,000 USD integer level);
◦ Strong support level: 92,494.2 USD (4-hour EMA5), probability of a break below <3%;
◦ Resistance levels: 93,377.0 USD (previous high) and 93,000 USD (market maker profit-taking zone), with a breakout targeting the 94,000 USD integer level.