ChenDong'sTransactionNotes

【Trump Performs "Art of the Buck Pass": Where Will the Middle East Situation Head?】
US President Trump has claimed to be considering a gradual reduction in large-scale military operations against Iran in the Middle East, stating that the objective is nearly achieved. Notably, this announcement was released after market close. Over the past three weeks, each time he has escalated the situation immediately after market close. This time, however, he seems to be de-escalating, or at least hinting that he might withdraw. The strategy he's implying here is something many have speculated about—that h

【Has the Market Already Written the Rate Hike Script? Will the Fed Play Along?】
While the Federal Reserve maintains a rate-cutting baseline officially, market expectations have clearly shifted, even beginning to bet on the possibility of future rate hikes. Three major factors driving this rising risk include: inflation persisting above the 2% target, rising oil prices potentially pushing prices higher, and actual interest rates continuously declining since rate cuts began in 2024, rendering monetary policy no longer distinctly restrictive.
Current inflation remains stubborn, particularly with