DanielRomero

Jefferies forecasts a 31% drop in smartphone shipments amid the memory crisis
Expects Samsung and $AAPL to gain 7 and 5 percentage points of market share, respectively
$QCOM: 63% of revenue from smartphones
$ARM: 30% of revenue from smartphones

$ONDS has made its best acquisition so far for $175M
Mistral is a prime contractor on over $1B of DoD contracts
In 2025, Mistral was awarded a $982M contract for Lethal Unmanned Systems
Mistral operates a 46,000+ sq. ft. production facility in Baltimore County
Vertical integration, in-house manufacturing, and a first-class ticket to the DoD ecosystem

$AAOI insiders are selling at an unprecedented pace

Now we understand why Trump appointed a more hawkish Fed chair

1-year return:
AI accelerators
- $NVDA: 58%
- $AVGO: 70%
- $AMD: 92%
- $MRVL: 26%
- $AMZN: 7%
- $GOOG: 70%
Memory makers
- $MU: 299%
- $SNDK: 933%
- $000660: 392%
Picks and shovels >

Arete Research downgraded $META from Buy to Neutral on Thursday and lowered its price target from $732 to $676
The firm warns that the company’s massive AI infrastructure spending could hurt margins without a clear path to monetization
The downgrade focuses on Meta’s plan to spend between $115 billion and $135 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, nearly double the $72.2 billion it spent the previous year
Arete argued that Meta’s expenses are rising faster than its revenue and that the company does not have the same pool of third-party demand that Google and Amazon benefit from through thei

Chinese study sees US missile defense gaps validated by Iran war
And what could patch those gaps
"Existing US missile defenses can theoretically intercept some hypersonic weapons in their final stage, but high speed, manoeuvrability, and stealth make it very difficult."
"THAAD operates at altitudes between 40km and 150km. When hypersonic missiles glide at lower altitudes, they become difficult to intercept, and at higher altitudes, they are vulnerable to decoy interference."
"Because the heat generated by high-speed travel through the atmosphere can blind the infrared sensors used to lock onto

Stargate is falling apart
$META is interested in leasing the site
$NVDA didn’t respond to requests for comment
Relations between Oracle and Crusoe were already strained by reliability issues at the site. Earlier this year, data center buildings went offline for days due to winter weather affecting some of the liquid cooling machinery
However, it is most likely that Oracle and OpenAI do not want to weaken their balance sheets further and risk bankruptcy if demand estimates fall short

Words are powerful
All it took was the $AVGO CEO coming out to give a hand to copper
Now $CRDO is up on a red day,
while $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI follow the market

H100 prices are skyrocketing to levels not seen since April 2025
$NBIS

$AVGO is reviving $CRDO stock
CEO Hock Tan just said co packaged optics are overhyped:
“You want to connect XPU to XPU directly with direct attach copper wherever possible because it is the lowest latency, lowest power, and lowest cost option. That remains true for scale up inside a rack or cluster domain, where Broadcom can keep pushing copper from 100G to 200G to 400G, including 400G SerDes that can reach across a rack.
For scale out, optical is already the right answer. But for scale up, the message is simple, stay on copper as long as you can, and do not rush into CPO just because it is th

$NBIS wants to become a hyperscaler
To do that, they are investing in vertical integration across the full stack
Arkady on the Morgan Stanley forum:
“We are a full stack company, just like the hyperscalers. When you look at the size of the industry, you see the revenues of all the participants across each layer, companies that build data centers, companies that build racks and equipment, and companies providing services on top. The same revenue is counted several times across the stack.
What matters is the margins and where the value is actually created in each layer. In our case, we are worki

$AAOI projects 10x growth with improving margins
In less than 2 years
However, management has a history of overpromising
1.
On the Q1 2024 call, CEO Thompson Lin said 800G alone could generate more than $500M to $600M next year.
They are still in the process of ramping up.
2.
In September 2023, AAOI filed a lawsuit against its largest customer, ATX Networks, which by 2022 had grown to contribute $105M, or 47% of company-wide revenue.
AAOI never disclosed this lawsuit to investors.
AAOI alleged that beginning in June 2023, ATX failed to make a series of required payments for fiber optic networ

Soros Chief Investment Officer sees a painful 2 years for investors due to geopolitical risks and AI disruption
Main concern is private credit risk, noting that BDCs are seeing redemptions as investors worry about rising loan defaults, with software exposure a key concern

Before anyone dumps their next paycheck into $LITE and $COHR:
- $NVDA invested $2B in $SNPS, it pumped 21%, then gave it back
- $NVDA invested $2B in $CRWV, it popped 10% in a day, then fell 32%
Jensen invests for reasons beyond just making a return