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From a macro perspective, the weekly chart has already formed a double bottom structure, with a simultaneous divergence signal, indicating that the bearish momentum is significantly weakening. The downside space for an immediate sharp decline is limited; a more reasonable scenario is: first a wave of staged rebound, repairing technicals, followed by a retest of the lows.
So far in this correction, there have been no black swan events such as exchange collapses or institutional risk incidents; the final drop has not yet arrived.
At this stage, it is not suitable to hold a heavy position. Focus
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ShainingMoonvip:
LFG 🔥
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#国际油价突破100美元
Where is the ceiling? The logic for still jumping in now
Regarding the oil price ceiling, this is the question people ask the most right now. Personally, I think short-term sentiment has completely dominated the market, and technical levels are temporarily ineffective; more attention should be paid to the news.
· In the short term, sentiment premium is very high. If the situation continues to escalate, for example, affecting major oil-producing regions or shipping routes, not only could $120 be reached, but even the historical high of $147 in 2008 might be touched. But this is an
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ShainingMoonvip:
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The best investment strategy in the world actually has only one word: patience.
But to practice this word, you need to cultivate your mind and character, overcome greed and foolishness, and maintain extreme self-discipline.
On social media, there are myths of annual income multiplied by n,
Most people lose because they are too smart,
Unable to resist the temptations of these media and markets,
Every day searching for the "wealth code" on social media and in the market,
Gradually losing the core of investing—patience,
So I only trust patience, only trust logic,
Making fewer mistakes is better t
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Ah:Xiaofengvip:
Happy New Year 🧨
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War and Algorithms: Reassessing the Value of Virtual Currencies in the Eye of the Storm
The fighting in the Strait of Hormuz has been ongoing for over a week, causing intense fluctuations in global capital markets amid the smoke and fire. As Iranian Revolutionary Guard speedboats cut through the Persian Gulf waters and U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups remain silently on standby in the Gulf of Oman, the cryptocurrency market is interpreting the deeper implications of this crisis in its own way.
Last weekend, the US-Israel coalition launched airstrikes against Iran, which immediately threaten
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ShainingMoonvip:
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The smoke over the Strait of Hormuz and the policy fog in Washington intertwine to form a complex macro landscape. The US-Iran standoff has entered its second week, with Iran's nuclear facilities approaching the "technical threshold," the dollar index surging past 108, and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations wavering—while virtual currencies, a new asset class once labeled "digital gold" and "safe haven assets" over the past few years, are undergoing an unprecedented test amid this storm of multiple variables.
Bitcoin experienced a second bottom during weekend volatility, briefly falling bel
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Many people think that as long as they survive the long bear market, they can naturally make big money when the bull market arrives.
That's not true at all! A bear market doesn't give you experience; it leaves you with severe PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder).
You're used to thinking that any rebound is just a trap, and you're accustomed to taking profits at 20% because if you don't sell, you'll get caught.
So when the real raging bull market comes, you hold onto your hundredfold coins, and when it rises 50%, you're so scared you quickly cash out for safety. Then, over the next few months,
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ShainingMoonvip:
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War is an accelerator of macro narratives. When sovereign credit collapses in the fire of battle, non-sovereign assets become the only escape.
Short-term war is a game of leverage and gamblers for BTC, which will intensify short-term price volatility( as recently experienced,
Ongoing mid-term wars will see fiscal expansion and monetary easing after the flames of battle.
And long-term wars will accelerate BTC's transformation from a "risk asset" to a "non-sovereign core asset."#2月非农意外负增长
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ShainingMoonvip:
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#加密市场小幅下跌
This knowledge point is foolproof! Suitable for phased bottom-fishing!
Which type of volume-price relationship during a correction phase allows you to determine whether it's a good time to buy the dip just by looking at the trading volume?
Basic concept: An increase in trading volume usually indicates growing disagreement between bulls and bears. Conversely, a decrease in trading volume suggests that the disagreement is diminishing and gradually becoming unified.
Based on this concept, a typical example is when you observe:
1. Daily trading volume decreasing consecutively (note: it
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ShainingMoonvip:
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#比特币创下近一月内新高
Gate Square | Bitcoin Breaks $74,000: Is this the start of a "New Bull" or the "Last Hurrah Before Recession"?
Just now, staring at the candlestick chart on the screen, that long-missed sweaty-palmed feeling returned. After nearly a month, Bitcoin finally touched above $74,000 again. This rally was accompanied by two major news from the White House: first, the formal nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate; second, the Senate's failure to block Trump's military strike against Iran.
War and leadership changes intertwine, risks and easing expectations soar
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Ryakpandavip:
Good luck and prosperity 🧧
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#美伊局势影响
These past few days, my mood while watching the markets has been like riding a roller coaster. The US-Iran conflict has entered its fifth day, and not only has the situation not eased, but there are signs of “spillover” expansion. As a “battlefield observer” in the square, watching the K-line charts on the screen and real-time news from the Middle East, I deeply feel that we may be at the starting point of a global energy crisis and asset revaluation.
🔥 My focus on “black swan” signals: not just the Strait blockade
Currently, major media headlines are talking about the “oil tanker st
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Ryakpandavip:
Volatility is an opportunity 📊
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#美伊局势影响 This conflict has put three types of assets through a stress test of their "safe-haven" qualities.
Gold's performance is the most traditional. As soon as geopolitical tensions flare, it surges to a historic high of $5,278. Although there was some hesitation afterward, it remains the top "first-tier" safe haven that global funds rush into during times of panic. It doesn't need to justify itself; thousands of years of human consensus are its greatest moat.
Oil follows a different logic. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, 20% of global oil supplies will be disrupted. The rise in oil pri
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Ryakpandavip:
2026 Go Go Go 👊
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#贵金原油价格飙升 Regarding the situation, I personally lean towards “high-intensity confrontation with low-probability full-scale war.” Iran blocking the strait is both retaliation and leverage. What truly determines asset prices is not the conflict itself, but the inflation expectations it generates.
· For crude oil and gold: As long as the fleet does not withdraw and the strait remains blocked, high-level volatility will be the main theme. Inflation expectations will thus heat up.
· For the crypto market (BTC/ETH): This is the key.
Today, many people ask: “Isn’t Bitcoin inflation-proof? Why isn’t
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Ryakpandavip:
Volatility is an opportunity 📊
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#深度创作营
A new month, a new week, a new Monday. Although the monthly performance has indeed been lackluster, it doesn't prevent the possibility of a significant rebound this month. After all, there are 31 days in this month and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. As I mentioned in my previous content, the ongoing conflict has a high likelihood of causing U.S. inflation and inflation expectations to rise again, which could lead to less optimistic economic data from the U.S.. This would probably be bearish for risk markets. It's a kind of pain, but we just need to endure it. Just like this confl
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Discoveryvip:
To The Moon 🌕
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#深度创作营
Recently, due to macroeconomic influences, the conflict between Israel and Iran led to a massive sell-off of Bitcoin. Several exchanges dumped nearly $3.5 billion worth of coins. However, overnight, this drop was not only recovered but the monthly opening price briefly broke through the 68,000 level after the morning close. If the war continues to escalate chaos, crude oil prices will eventually surge, significantly impacting U.S. inflation, which could lead the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. At that point, the market may reprice itself. In the short term, on an hourly cha
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Discoveryvip:
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The conflict in Israel ultimately triggered market panic, instantly causing a global geopolitical crisis and severe turbulence in the financial markets. The crypto market was hit hardest, experiencing a cliff-like decline.
Affected by breaking news, confidence in the crypto market collapsed, leading to a surge in panic selling. The flagship Bitcoin once dropped close to 63K, breaking the previous consolidation pattern;
Ethereum also declined to around 1840, and other mainstream and small-cap cryptocurrencies also faced setbacks, with market funds fleeing noticeably.
Currently, the crypto marke
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ASingleEggvip:
Happy New Year 🧨
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#深度创作营
In yesterday's short essay, the ideas were fine, but there was an issue with the levels. The price hit a low of around 66,500 early this morning, but the support zone given was 【67,000-67,400】. Currently, the strongest rebound has reached around 68,200, and it seems there is still upward momentum.
Can it rise today? Or is it just a rebound? Here's how I see it: one standard for going up, one standard for going down.
The upward standard is that the price can break through and stabilize above 68,100, which isn't a high requirement. But if even this can't be achieved today, then continue
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EveryoneIsDestinedToDie.vip:
The happiest thing in life is to strive.
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#BTC能否重返7万美元?
Recently, it has become evident that the phenomenon of "10 a.m. sell-offs," which used to be very punctual like an alarm clock, has significantly weakened. This is likely related to the progress of lawsuits involving market makers like Jane Street—market speculation suggests that regulatory pressure may have caused some quantitative strategies to temporarily converge, or that market makers are adjusting their algorithm models to mitigate risk. However, it is important to view this rationally: the weakening of selling pressure only removes a downward resistance; a genuine rally s
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