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Little Penguin Notes | Hanlon's Razor is a philosophical adage:
“Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.”
Most of our lives are filled with forgetfulness, mistakes, omissions, and misunderstandings. Foolish things happen constantly, while truly malicious acts are low-probability events.
Keep an open mind and make communication possible.
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Note | Many times, we only want to believe what we want to believe because it brings comfort and ease.
Even if it may not be close to the truth, people are often willing to believe explanations that are more favorable to themselves in order to keep their inner peace.
British philosopher Bertrand Russell once said, "Man is a credulous animal."
Even in the absence of reliable evidence, we tend to cling to certain beliefs because they make us feel secure and satisfied.
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Spend one reach on X to end this turn. Just to say to everyone:
GM
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$SUI is at the same price level as $APT
However, the circulating supply of the two differs by a factor of 5, meaning the market cap differs by a factor of 5 😅
SUI-4,87%
APT-2,15%
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Market Prediction Observation | Will GTA6 Launch First or Will Jesus Come First?
GTA6 was originally scheduled for release in Fall 2025, but last year it was announced to be delayed until 2026/5. Then at the end of the year, another delay was announced, and the latest official statement indicates a release in 2026/11.
@Polymarket market bets on the delay still reflect people's lack of confidence in @RockstarGames, with still 40% betting on further delays 😂
Will GTA6 arrive before Jesus comes, or vice versa? Let's wait and see 🤣🤣
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Never go to the @grok media page.
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2026 Market Predictions: Key Events Summary
Here are the major events to watch for in this year's prediction markets, spanning sports, politics, and arts.
Friends following prediction markets @Polymarket @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz can save this ✍️
Among them, the three major liquidity battlegrounds this year:
1. April–May: Federal Reserve Chair Appointment (Impact on the global macroeconomy)
2. June–July: FIFA World Cup (Quadrennial, largest sports funding pool)
3. 11/3: US Midterm Elections (This year's biggest political contest)
——
January
- 1/3–17: Dakar Rally (Dakar Rally)
- 1/11: Golden Glob
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Happy New Year to 2026!
X's love button has also turned into a fireworks shape, try it out ⬇️
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2026 Market Forecast Key Event Schedule
Summarized major events to watch for in next year's prediction markets, spanning sports, politics, and arts
Friends who play @Polymarket @Kalshi can save ✍️
——
January (January)
Dakar Rally – January 3–17 (Car racing)
83rd Golden Globe Awards – January 11 (Film and TV awards predictions)
Australian Open – mid to late January (One of the four Grand Slam tournaments)
February (February)
Six Nations Championship – early February (Major European sports event)
Milano‑Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games – February 6–22 (**Annual focus:** Medal count, specific ev
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2025 CoinGlass Centralized Exchange Comprehensive Ranking
Which exchange do you mainly use?
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wc earthquake
Is the bull coming?
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Note | Occam's Razor Principle, also known as the Principle of Simplicity, suggests that when explaining phenomena, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions and simplest theory should be selected.
It was proposed by 14th-century logician William of Ockham, encouraging the elimination of unnecessary complexity and striving to grasp the essence of things in the simplest way. It is widely applied in fields such as science, management, and decision-making.
It is important to note that simplicity is not necessarily the best solution.
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Which AI do everyone use most now? Why is it the most commonly used? 🤔
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.@Polymarket really saved the horseshoe, but the coin price has no signs of improvement 😅
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In this market, how long has it been since you last opened your wallet/exchange?
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