#我的2026第一条帖 Bull Market "Mid-Season Break"? Crypto Market Cools Off and Consolidates, Brewing the Next Act
Since last night until now, the overall cryptocurrency market remains relatively stable, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both entering a retracement phase. Bitcoin continued its intraday downward trend from yesterday, dropping to around 95,100 early this morning, giving back some of its previous gains. It is now fluctuating around 95,600; Ethereum is relatively steadier but also unable to withstand pressure, falling to around 3,273 early this morning, wiping out the rebound space before the US market opened. It’s clear that the short-term rebound momentum is already significantly lacking.
Last night, initial jobless claims did not meet expectations, indicating that the employment market has stabilized. Plus, several Federal Reserve officials continued to sound hawkish, openly stating a pause in rate cuts, which directly dampened risk assets. Currently, most market participants believe there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. The previously期待ed liquidity easing is now largely out of sight.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin had been rising for several days, but yesterday finally closed with a bearish candle. The four-hour MACD has formed a death cross and started increasing volume below the zero line. The RSI has also turned downward from the overbought zone, indicating that a short-term correction is highly likely. Fortunately, the price is currently stuck near the four-hour midline, which may hold for a while, and the weak volume on the hourly chart has eased somewhat.
Ethereum’s daily chart also closed with a bearish candle, and the four-hour MACD is weakening as well. The momentum of the rebound at high levels is diminishing day by day. Key resistance and support levels include two points above Bitcoin: one is the hourly midline at 96,300, and the other is the high point of last night’s rebound at 97,000; short-term support below is the four-hour midline at 94,800. If this level cannot hold, it’s likely to continue downward toward the previous range of 94,000-93,000.
For Ethereum, resistance is concentrated between 3,370 and 3,400. The key support is at the 3,270 midline; if this level is broken, the correction will likely intensify, possibly falling to the 3,200-3,150 range.
Overall, today’s market mainly shows a pressure-driven correction trend. Tonight’s speeches by several Federal Reserve officials are crucial, as they will directly influence short-term market sentiment. Everyone should pay close attention. The core focus remains on the rebound strength and the performance of key support and resistance levels. If the main supports cannot hold, the crypto market may return to the previous consolidation range. It’s advisable to stay cautious in trading, avoid rushing into positions, and wait for clearer signals before taking action for better safety.
