Gumg

the bitcoin outperformance may have been carried solely by saylor and $strc
today was the dividend payment day so people are selling STRC
since saylor can only print money with STRC at $100, he can't raise anything today
dividend days will be one of the best tradable events especially if we continue ranging

bullish on $SOL here
it has been making higher lows and compressing at the $90 resistance
this is highly dependent on bitcoin breaking out so there's that risk
I bought here at just under $90, if I'm wrong I'm wrong but happy with the R/R

No one, and I mean no one, buys the bottom and holds to ATHs
So what if you bought 50% above every BTC bottom, and waited 12 months?
→ +259% average return
→ +146% median return
You don't have to buy the bottom.
The most important thing is to buy when Bitcoin is *still* cheap.

if you're debating a move to portugal remember:
pros:
- 0% tax on longterm crypto gains (held >365 days)
- sunniest country in europe
- ocean is always a few minutes away
- no missiles flying over you, ever
- amazing food
cons:
- very expensive housing and rents
- expensive groceries, restaurants getting there
- bad, slow public services
- horrible bureaucracy for businesses
overall it's a 10/10 if you are financially stable

You have the Iran president apologizing to gulf nations and the IRGC says fuck you and continues to attack everyone
The US/Israel are attacking Iran's Oil facilities and the straight of hormuz activity is dropping hard
Stocks are still pricing in a Trump TACO but Iran may not let it happen cause chaos is the most painful scenario for the US

At what % is the market pricing in a quick resolution of US-Iran war?
I think it is priced in with a high %, making it the perfect reason for the SPY to drop 5%-10%
Trump is a man of markets and he knows stock indexes are still near ATHs. They can prolong this war for more than 1 month before needing to pivot and fix things quickly.
That would be a lot of damage due to disruptions in the Straight of Hormuz.
This would be a perfect support test, making dip buyers greedy again.
FWIW I have no idea where this would put Bitcoin since it tends to act completely random at times.

This is what Claude has to say about Solana
→ SOL is down 68% from its ATH of $293. Same price as early 2021.
→ SOL is a far better asset today than it was in 2021.
++ ETFs
++ 2 Years with no outages
++ Supply is better distributed, no more FTX shadow
++ Flipped Ethereum on almost every metric except for TVL and Market Cap
→ Assuming BTC +$100K, the 1-year base case $180-$250 (50%)
The main risk is complacency. Similar to Ethereum when it downplayed the growth of Solana.