Many people believe that the bottom of this bear market is around 80,000, and that falling too much would cause too much damage to the market. However, I think if the bottom of this bear market for BTC is indeed at 80,000, the accumulation cycle for institutions will become longer, and the market will fall into endless fluctuations. Moreover, the next bull market will have less and less room to grow. The reason is simple: falling too little means limited space. The same logic applies to this round of $BTC . If ETH in the 2022 bear market can drop 95% like in the 2018 bear market, then ETH would have already surpassed 5000 in this bull market. The market is like a spring: the lower it is compressed, the higher it bounces back. Therefore, to ensure the next bull market has more room to grow, it’s best for BTC to break below 8K, or even below 7K, which would be the most comfortable. The same applies to ETH. $ETH

2026.01.21 Market Trends BTC and ETH plummet, altcoins broadly decline. MicroStrategy purchases $2.1 billion worth of BTC. US stocks, bonds, and forex all sharply fall, while storage remains strong. Gold and silver hit new highs. Due to worsening US-Europe relations, Europe sells US bonds and buys gold. Market Hotspots: 1. Gold RWA's PAXG and XAUT hit new highs. The Polish Central Bank approves a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold. 2. Privacy-focused FHE surges to new highs; privacy is the market's main theme. Small coins like River experience short squeeze rallies, with a short rate of 470%. 3. Perp hype drops significantly, with recent unlocks totaling $60 million. 4. BSC chain meme tokens, such as 1 and CryCry, are about to launch BN Alpha; market performance is poor. BN's value crashes. 5. Public chain ETH drops sharply. Except for a few decentralized tokens like BTC and ETH, the Clarity Act equates altcoins with securities under SEC regulation. Future new project tokens will require periodic mandatory disclosures, with fundraising capped at $200 million. Annual sell-offs cannot exceed 10%. New project tokens are less cost-effective than issuing stocks directly. DeFi protocols must comply with banking and brokerage regulations. RWA tokenized stocks are considered securities. The altcoin model is heading towards extinction.

Recently, the market has been fluctuating wildly, and many people are confused. But every reversal has key levels, and we can always prepare and make predictions. Yesterday, I provided two key levels: the first at 3180, a valid breakdown to short, shared dynamically; the second at 3087, a 4-hour critical support level, a breakdown could continue the short. If missed, it indicates a lack of trust in me😂. The 4-hour bullish and bearish dividing line: Bitcoin and Ethereum both broke below it, signaling a shift to bearish. I mentioned this position several days ago; once broken, go short immediately. Trump’s recent antics are truly frustrating. Since this guy took office, he has used tariffs as a diplomatic weapon. If you don’t comply, he raises tariffs. Last year’s trade war with China had a big impact on the crypto market, and it’s not just China; now, with the EU over Greenland, tensions have resumed. MicroStrategy bought 22,305 BTC last week, spending $2.13 billion, but the market still declined, mainly due to the impact of tariffs. Moreover, the US imports from the EU through China at twice the rate, making this impact particularly significant. So, will the market continue to fall? If it breaks the 4-hour bullish and bearish dividing line, will the market drop below the $70,000 level I mentioned earlier? What are the key influencing factors? I believe the first is whether tariffs are escalated from 10% to 25%. If increased, the decline will continue. Second, the EU’s countermeasures. Third, the attitude and rulings of the US Supreme Court, especially since Trump repeatedly used tariffs as a diplomatic weapon. Will the court limit presidential powers? If signals indicate tariffs are illegal, the market will quickly adjust and rebound. This rebound didn’t reach the expected height, so this time, we must pay close attention to news. Keep an eye on key levels, and you can make big profits by trading accordingly.