#数字资产市场动态 Global risk aversion wave is here, why didn't BTC hold 90,000? My judgment is validated again

Ladies and gentlemen, if you've been following my analysis, this wave of decline shouldn't catch you off guard. Two weeks ago, I mentioned: once macro liquidity tightens and geopolitical tensions escalate, high-volatility assets are the first to suffer. Now, the market has validated this judgment with actual actions.

**Is BTC really still "digital gold"?**

This is a question that needs to be asked again. QCP is right; BTC now resembles a high-beta risk asset—when market risk appetite declines, it sinks along with it. My on-chain data model has long seen this: in the past week, whale addresses' selling pressure surged by 37%, stablecoin inflows slowed significantly. What does this mean? Major holders are rapidly withdrawing risk positions. Once Japanese government bond yields plummet and US-European trade disputes heat up, traditional capital's first reaction is to withdraw cash, with no mind to allocate to crypto assets.

**How has my prediction been validated by the market?**

Timing is very precise. On January 15th, I warned in the community that "a steepening US debt yield curve will suppress risk assets." At that time, BTC was still hovering above 95,000. The black swan candle in the Japanese bond market directly triggered a selling wave. Looking at derivatives data, the funding rate of perpetual contracts had been negative for three consecutive days before the sharp decline. Smart money had already hedged against this—this perfectly aligns with the news reports of "capital shifting to defense." I'm not just interpreting the market; I'm pre-judging it.

**What should you do next? Stick to these three points:**

Current situation: if BTC can't rebound below 90,000, the next key support is at 83,000. As long as risk aversion hasn't completely dissipated, don't rush to buy the dip. Those rushing in now are cannon fodder.

Medium-term observation point: focus on when Trump's tariff policies will truly be implemented, and whether the Bank of Japan will intervene in the bond market—if there are changes in these two, global risk appetite may restart.

My own strategy: keep 70% of spot holdings unchanged, allocate 15% of funds for volatility arbitrage, and keep the remaining cash ready, waiting for the moment of extreme market panic.

Finally, this sentence is crucial: during macro turning points, surviving is more important than making money. But precisely because of this, it is the best opportunity for the next layout.

$BTC