Mở ra cuộc chơi thuế quan bí ẩn: Chu kỳ đàm phán của Trump và logic giao dịch

Trump President recently announced tariffs on multiple EU countries, seemingly a trade policy adjustment, but its subtle true intention points elsewhere — this is not about implementing tariffs for real, but as a bargaining chip. Behind this covert game involving the Greenland acquisition, there lies a carefully designed market cycle operation. For market participants, understanding this logic hinges on grasping the true meaning behind subtle signals and the market volatility patterns they trigger.

The Greenland Plan in the Subtle Threats

The Trump administration announced tariffs of 10% on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1. This list appears clear, but its subtlety lies in — these tariffs will be raised to 25% on June 1, and will not be lifted until the Greenland acquisition agreement is reached.

According to Trump, this deal must be a “complete and comprehensive purchase” of Greenland. The implicit message here is clear: tariffs are not the goal, but a pressure tool. Compared to last October’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on China to reduce rare earth exports, the current tariff threat involving Greenland is evidently a more complex and difficult target. This suggests the entire game cycle could be extended further.

Cyclical Subtle Strategies: From Signals to Panic

To understand the power of Trump’s tariff threats, one must recognize their subtle cyclical pattern. This pattern has almost become the standard script for each trade conflict over the past year.

First is the signaling phase. Trump often issues seemingly routine but actually threatening messages on weekends — the most covert timing. He hints at imminent tariffs on certain countries or industries, and this subtle language immediately triggers market unease. For example, in this case, initial covert threats about Denmark on Friday caused markets to start declining.

Next is the escalation phase. Later on the weekend (or even Saturday), Trump announces a major new tariff plan, usually exceeding 25%. At this point, the covert threat turns into explicit pressure, with a force far beyond market expectations.

During Saturday and Sunday, the Trump administration repeatedly ramps up tariff threats while markets are fully closed, maximizing psychological impact. This is the brilliance of the subtle strategy — creating panic when markets cannot trade, giving investors two full days to digest the bad news, with actual price movements only occurring when futures open on Monday evening.

Targeted countries often respond publicly during the weekend or send signals willing to negotiate. These signals lay the groundwork for subsequent market rebounds.

When US Eastern Time hits 6 pm on Sunday (or in this case, Monday evening), markets react initially — emotional sell-offs. For example, during the October trade war with China, S&P 500 futures once fell as much as -3.5%, reflecting the market panic when subtle threats turn into explicit pressure.

Market Rhythm of the Subtle Strategy

On Monday and Tuesday, the Trump administration continues to apply public pressure, but investors begin to realize a key fact: tariffs have not yet truly taken effect. There is a buffer of several weeks from the announcement date to the implementation date (this time February 1). This realization becomes the starting point for easing sentiment.

By Wednesday, bottom-fishers start to enter the market. A relief rally follows, but this often fades and leads to another decline. However, savvy traders see this as an opportunity — buying at the lowest emotional point.

About a week later, that weekend, Trump posts that negotiations are ongoing, and he is working with leaders of target countries to find solutions. This signal is also subtle but points in the opposite direction — from threats to easing, paving the way for market rebounds.

That weekend, at 6 pm Sunday, as optimism returns, futures surge higher. But gains often retreat after the cash market opens on Monday, reflecting that market participants still need to digest various information.

After Monday’s open, senior officials like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin appear on TV to reassure investors and emphasize progress in the agreement. The subtle purpose of these actions is clear: steer market sentiment from panic to optimism.

Over the next 2 to 4 weeks, officials continue to leak progress on trade negotiations. These signals, though subtle, are unambiguous — an agreement is imminent. Eventually, the trade deal is announced, markets hit new highs, and this cycle begins again.

Precise Timing and Trading Opportunities

Trump’s entire negotiation strategy revolves around timing and pressure. He deliberately provides a 2-3 week buffer before tariffs take effect, aiming to give all parties a window to reach an agreement. Most importantly, Trump’s subtle goal is never for these tariffs to actually come into force — he wants a deal.

This also explains why more and more announcements are made during market closures on weekends. He pushes threats to the edge but never crosses the line. If tariffs truly took effect and persisted, it would shake the global trade order — which is not Trump’s aim.

In the previous China trade war, a telling detail is that on November 1, Trump announced a new trade agreement with China, exactly on the day when 100% tariffs were scheduled to take effect. The timing was so precise that it demonstrated meticulous planning.

For investors who can stay objective, understand this pattern, and adjust their trading strategies accordingly, the volatility during trade wars becomes the best environment for profit. Data from investment analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter shows that traders employing this systematic approach significantly outperform market benchmarks.

Hidden Goals and Deal Fulfillment

The Greenland acquisition involved in this tariff threat is indeed more complex than past trade conflicts. Market turbulence may last longer, but the basic cycle sequence remains consistent; the execution timetable will be more extended.

The key insight is that these seemingly aggressive covert threats are actually carefully crafted negotiation tools. By creating tension during market closures, leaving buffers before tariffs take effect, and alternating signals of threats and reconciliation, the Trump administration continually pressures opponents to compromise.

For market participants, understanding this subtle logic is valuable: volatility equals opportunity. Those who can identify cyclical patterns, operate contrarily during panic, and profit from optimistic signals are gaining the best returns in this process. The most astute market players have already fully exploited the covert volatility patterns of asset prices during trade wars, turning them into excess returns.