Thứ Sáu có 285 tỷ USD quyền chọn đáo hạn! Bitcoin đối mặt với thử thách ngày thanh toán siêu lớn của Deribit

Cryptocurrency markets experienced intense volatility this week, with Bitcoin briefly surging above $90,000 before reversing downward, currently oscillating around $88,000. The market focus is not on daily fluctuations but on the upcoming epic settlement this Friday — the expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts on the world’s largest derivatives exchange, Deribit, totaling up to billion USD.

Record-breaking $285 Billion Scale, Over Half of Deribit’s Open Interest

According to Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Pequignot, this settlement’s scale is unprecedented. The $285 billion in expiring contracts accounts for over 50% of the platform’s $522 billion open interest, indicating significant pressure on market participants to rebalance their positions.

Pequignot stated that year-end expiries often symbolize the conclusion of a full year’s trading cycle, but this year’s market characteristics have subtly shifted — from a purely speculative cycle to a more systemic, policy- and macro-driven “super cycle.” This transformation profoundly influences traders’ decision-making logic and risk management strategies.

Bitcoin Battles Between $88,000 and $90,000

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating within a narrow range of $88,000 to $90,000, which is no coincidence. Market participants are closely watching the so-called “max pain point” — the strike price most likely to cause maximum losses to options holders before expiration.

Based on Pequignot’s analysis, the current max pain point for Bitcoin is around $96,000. However, downside risks should not be underestimated — put options with a strike price of $85,000 have accumulated a massive open interest of $1.2 billion. If these short positions are triggered, they could serve as catalysts for accelerating the decline in Bitcoin’s price.

Bullish Positions Not Fully Withdrawn, Mid-term Call Spread Strategies Still in Play

It is worth noting that bullish momentum has not completely faded. The market still shows mid-term call spread strategies (buying calls at $100,000 to $125,000) reflecting traders’ continued confidence in medium- to long-term bullishness. However, the cost of short-term hedging (protective puts) has risen significantly, indicating increased market vigilance against recent volatility.

Traders Roll Positions into January, Risk Management Strategies Upgraded

The most notable development is the traders’ operational logic — they are not rushing to close their defensive positions but are instead carefully “rolling” into next month. Specifically, market funds are continuously shifting from December-expiring put options with strike prices between $85,000 and $70,000 to January-expiring put spread strategies with strike prices between $80,000 and $75,000.

This phenomenon reflects a subtle market psychology — investors have taken necessary protections against short-term risks before year-end but remain highly alert to potential trends in early 2026. The $285 billion grand settlement is imminent, yet market risk awareness has extended into a longer time horizon.