3.19 Thursday Midday Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve's early morning interest rate decision maintained the benchmark rate unchanged, keeping the rate corridor at 3.5%-3.75%, which basically aligned with market expectations. The key focus is that the latest dot plot still shows only one rate cut expected for the year, while inflation estimates were revised upward, indicating that the current Fed remains highly vigilant about rising energy prices, geopolitical risks, and U.S. inflation persistence.

Powell's overall remarks were neutral with a slight hawkish lean. He did not release a clear rate cut timeline, but repeatedly emphasized "still need to wait for more data confirmation," particularly mentioning that recent oil price increases could push inflation higher again. This means near-term liquidity easing expectations are being suppressed. The market had originally hoped for more dovish signals, but following the speech, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened, and risk asset sentiment clearly cooled.

For the crypto space, this "holding steady but not rushing to easing" stance will continue to pressure Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term. Bitcoin pulled back after the news, indicating that high-level funds are taking profits, and short-term volatility will likely continue oscillating around sentiment; Ethereum, with greater volatility elasticity, typically faces stronger selling pressure than Bitcoin. If the market cannot quickly reclaim key resistance zones thereafter, it will likely continue the rhythm of washout before choosing direction, but as long as rate cut expectations are not completely broken, there remains potential for capital re-inflows after pullbacks.

BTC Operation Suggestions: Oscillation range 70,700-71,500, execute high sells and low buys
ETH Operation Suggestions: Oscillation range 2,160-2,230, execute high sells and low buys