张烁峰的剧本日记

很多人不是看不懂趨勢
而是不懂如何「做」趨勢
韭菜總是在趨勢到來之後找各種原因去解釋
又是加息，又是特朗普，又是這又是那
就是沒有自己水平的原因
從74000開始，我就一直說要做空要做空
即使後續又再次突破了74000
也僅僅是假突破到76000就再次暴跌
知行合一
在我沒有提示可以轉多之前
反彈就是做空$BTC ‌$ETH ‌

比特幣“打出身價”啦。$BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Bitcoin Bottom-Fishing Indicators Collectively Fail, $45,000 May Be the Last Defense Line
Bitcoin has reversed course after eight consecutive daily gains, continuing to decline from $76,000, currently trading around $69,200. For players eager to bottom-fish, the greatest confusion is this: how have those indicators that once worked reliably suddenly stopped working?
The Ahr999 index has been lying in the sub-0.45 bottom-fishing zone for nearly 50 days. In the past, this would have been time to enter with eyes closed, but the market kept falling anyway. MVRV Z-Score hasn't fared much better eit

今天很多人在跟我說，老張，你的南下準不準啊，我都看企穩了，這不是彈上來71了嗎？
如果你認真看了我給到的位置，你就會發現什麼是精準！#加密行情震荡 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Ethereum Market Analysis 2026.03.20
ETH "happened to" reverse and stop falling yesterday at the time mentioned in the tweet and at the marked position. Friends who carefully read the tweet last night bought in again 😁
The update principle I've always insisted on is: video explanation of large-scale trends every Sunday, and daily tweets breaking down and tracking small-scale structures. Although posting only daily-level charts can avoid many small-level noise and appear "spot on", I think sharing daily updates like this now will be more valuable. Friends who have been watching, remember to lik

Starting from 76000, I've been rolling short positions almost the entire way down.
I also accurately predicted that last night's 69100 level would open up a wave of rebound.
As for grasping the trend, I believe I have almost no rivals on the square.
When you believe the major trend is bearish, you should boldly add positions at every rebound resistance level.
Many people may have gone short at 76000 as well.
But during the small rebounces in between, how many dared to roll short positions?
There is no other reason, only practice makes perfect #Gate13周年全球庆典 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

BTC 行情分析 2026.03.20
自提示76000作為階段高點後BTC跌幅已達7200點！昨晚止跌後我止盈了部分空單。理由是若BTC按紅色路線運行則68700可能是第一段下跌的終點，後續幾天針對76000-68700這段下跌的反彈結束後BTC會繼續跌至江恩時間3.24/3.30當周。
目前正在運行的這個反彈力度越強，持續的時間越長，藍色路線的概率就會越低。
操作思路：找到反彈終點後繼續加倉空，後續在江恩時間內出現「時價共振」後平空做多。
交易其實很簡單，看清趨勢、搞懂級別、做好策略、知行合一。
$BTC ‌#Gate13周年全球庆典

從當前的行情走勢來看，主力標的雖然在夜間走出了一波較大級別的反彈修復，但從反彈的力度和周期維度綜合判斷，這並不具備支持趨勢持續反轉的條件。
在四小時級別上，雖然出現陽線並收復了部分失地，但能量配合明顯不足，呈現縮量上行的結構，這種狀態往往難以演化成具有持續性的行情。目前仍應視為小級別的技術性修復，並非趨勢發生逆轉的信號。
結合更短周期觀察，行情呈現小幅震蕩調整的格局，K線普遍帶有較長的上影線，並在關鍵價位附近明顯承壓。加之之前的回落已有效下穿重要支撐位，下方空間被進一步打開，且短期內尚未出現明確的企穩跡象。綜合來看，我們維持原有看調整的思路不變。
日內短線：
70900-71600南下，第一站69900，第二站69000，第三站68800
2180-2210南下，第一站2135，第二站2115，第三站2090
#比特币支撑阻力位分析 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

以太坊 行情分析 2026.03.19
ETH整体节奏跟随BTC但小级别略有差异，目前来看后续的走势很明朗了，本周的走势会决定ETH是走图示红色还是蓝色路线，因此要格外关注。
红：今明两天ETH止跌并运行一波反弹，周末或下周一结束反弹后继续跌至江恩时间3.24/3.30当周。后续下跌终点不低于1747则会在结束2386开始的回调后再拉一波，届时完成1747开始的全部反弹开始新的下跌趋势。
蓝：本周ETH下跌幅度较大并未见强力反弹，该路径下ETH三月底四月初或将跌破1747，找到下跌终点后会运行一波大反弹，反弹结束后跟红色路线一样会开启新的下跌趋势。
今天刚说过，交易要找“共性”，这样成功率会显著增加。有慧根的朋友仔细琢磨琢磨#美联储维持利率不变 $ETH ‌$BTC ‌

https://gate.com/post?post_id=19591293&tim=U1hBUFhWBQMCdhYQWgYGAgO0O0OO0O0O&ref=VLMVB1WLBA&ref_type=105
這篇帖子的含金量如何？有多少兄弟跟上了？#美联储维持利率不变 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.19
Let me start with the conclusion: I believe BTC will complete the decline starting from 76000 earliest by next week, or at the latest by the 3.30 weekly candle. The magnitude of this decline will determine which route it follows as shown in the chart.
Since BTC broke through 74000, I have been consistently pouring cold water on the situation, repeatedly reminding everyone that this is only a rebound. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline. Even if the rebound level expands, the first rebound segment has already entered its final stage, followed by

The targets in yesterday's strategy have been completed. Bitcoin broke below 71,000, Ethereum hit a low of 2,150, and all short positions that were entered have been closed with profits. Regardless of how much profit was captured, the result is that all positions have been safely secured. The strategy adjustment was very timely, and of course this is also inseparable from the cooperation of friends. Next, we will continue our efforts and strive to multiply friends' positions several times over.
In fact, there is not much explanation needed for this market trend. Whether it's technical support

美联储维持利率不变，但是根据美联储点阵图中值：2026年将累计降息25个基点。也就是说今年大概率只会降息一次。#美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

還有20分鐘公布美聯儲決議，2點30還要聽老鮑叽叽喳喳，有多少人守著這個時間的？ ​​​#美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌