A week of macroeconomic turmoil: The escalation of the US-Iran conflict stirs global markets, interest rate hike expectations reignite, and energy and gold soar.

BlockBeats message, March 28, over the past week, global markets have swung violently under the dual shock of geopolitics and monetary policy. The standoff between the United States and Iran has entered a parallel stage of “military pressure + diplomatic bargaining.” Shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz have become the key variable, pushing crude oil prices back to elevated levels and significantly lifting global inflation expectations.

Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations have undergone a critical shift. Several officials have issued hawkish signals, and the market quickly swung from betting on rate cuts this year to “keeping rates high for longer,” and even re-pricing the possibility of rate hikes. The U.S. dollar index has returned above 100, Treasury yields have risen in tandem, and global liquidity expectations have tightened.

Performance across major asset classes has diverged clearly: gold has held steady in high-range consolidation amid wild swings, while crude oil has become the strongest mainline asset. U.S. stocks, meanwhile, have come under pressure and fallen; all three major indexes closed down on the week, with technology stocks leading the decline. In FX markets, the yen has continued to weaken, approaching key intervention thresholds, and non-U.S. currencies have faced broad pressure.

At the same time, global policy and capital flows have also seen important changes. Japan has released large-scale strategic petroleum reserves and is preparing to intervene in oil prices through the futures market; Singapore has accelerated efforts to build a hub for gold trading; and Turkey has also made a major move by using its gold reserves to address liquidity pressure.

Overall, the market has entered a high-volatility cycle of “geopolitical conflict-driven inflation — monetary policy repricing — asset revaluation.” In the near term, the main storyline is still centered on how the Middle East situation evolves and on the policy paths of global central banks.