Aster (ASTER) has been under continuous pressure since its listing, dropping about 70% from its peak of $1.50. Technically, ASTER has formed a distinct inverse V-shaped top structure around $1.40, with a sharp rally followed by a rapid pullback, leaving buyers trapped, and the price has consistently remained below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.
According to the V-top measurement method, ASTER’s neckline is located in the $1.04 to $1.05 region. If this support fails, the price may further decline toward $0.82, corresponding to the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level. Despite the weak price action, 68% of traders in leading CEX perpetual contract markets are still attempting to “buy the dip” and go long, but in a downtrend, longs are continuously being liquidated. The cumulative net long positions are steadily decreasing, while net short positions remain largely unchanged. This indicates that the current decline is not driven by shorts, but rather by forced long liquidations under pressure, which further pushes the price slowly lower.
If the liquidation pace continues, ASTER’s rebounds are more likely to “provide liquidity” rather than form a trend reversal. However, the market is not without hope. Starting December 8, Aster DEX has accelerated the fourth phase of its buyback plan, dedicating 60% to 90% of platform fee revenue to daily buybacks, with amounts potentially reaching $4 million. Recently, the protocol also burned about 78 million ASTER and transferred an equivalent amount of tokens into a locked airdrop wallet, reinforcing overall deflationary expectations and providing long-term price support.
(Source: TradingView)
Technically, the key support at $0.91 is forming a potential double-bottom structure, a region that previously triggered a successful rebound. If buyers can once again defend this level and break through the $1.39 neckline, ASTER could see a short-term reversal, with a target price of $2.19.
Overall, short-term liquidation pressure remains high, and ASTER still risks testing $0.82. However, the buyback mechanism, token burns, and the 2026 roadmap (including Layer-1, governance, and staking upgrades) bring mid- to long-term potential. In the short term, the key lies in whether the $0.91 support can hold. If it does, the token may show the first effective trend recovery signal in weeks.
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