Geopolitics

February 12 News, the cryptocurrency market sentiment has sharply deteriorated. The latest data shows that the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 5, officially entering the "Extreme Fear" zone, reflecting a rapid loss of investor confidence amid ongoing price declines and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. The index was still at 26 a month ago and dropped to 12 a week ago, with the steep decline over a short period highlighting a dramatic shift in sentiment. This change is not an isolated event. The Global Uncertainty Index surged above 100,000 in the third quarter of 2025, and remained close to 95,000 in the fourth quarter, far exceeding the peaks seen during the pandemic, Brexit, and the Eurozone debt crisis. Geopolitical tensions, uncertain policy outlooks, and financial market volatility have collectively amplified risk-averse sentiment and driven capital outflows from high-risk assets.

The Thai government approved a proposal from the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday to allow digital assets to be used as underlying assets for derivative products and capital markets. This move aligns with the Stock Exchange of Thailand's plan to launch Bitcoin futures and ETFs in 2026. However, the central bank still prohibits cryptocurrency payments, and consumer stablecoin usage is restricted. Thailand's largest exchange, Bitkub, has a daily trading volume of $65 million, and in January, it launched a campaign to combat "gray funds."

8,300 Chinese victims applying for compensation in a 60,000 Bitcoin money laundering case with slow progress, law firms acting independently leading to repeated issues, and rising legal fees. In February 2026, a hearing will be held in the High Court of the United Kingdom, involving over 30 billion RMB and nearly 130,000 victims. Bitcoin market capitalization has significantly shrunk.

On February 12, the largest banking lobbying organization in the United States—the American Bankers Association (ABA)—submitted a comment letter to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), urging it to slow down the approval process for cryptocurrency-related licenses until Congress completes rules for stablecoins and digital assets. The association warned that prematurely approving new digital asset institutions into the national banking system could pose potential risks to financial stability and resolution mechanisms. Currently, institutions including Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Paxos, and Laser Digital (a subsidiary of Nomura Securities) are applying for or already hold OCC conditional trust bank licenses. World Liberty Financial, associated with Trump, also submitted an application covering its $1 stablecoin. The ABA believes that, in the absence of the implementation of the GENIUS Act and its supporting regulations, the OCC should not follow the traditional approval pace.

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown rose to 85%, stemming from budget negotiation deadlock. Potential economic consequences include federal employee furloughs and service interruptions. Financial markets may experience volatility, but Bitcoin shows unusual stability, suggesting investor confidence in its value storage role may depend on the shutdown's duration and impact.

Thailand takes a key step forward in cryptocurrency regulation. The Thai cabinet has approved significant amendments to the Derivatives Act, officially including cryptocurrencies within the scope of regulated derivative assets. This means that crypto assets will be recognized as compliant financial instruments within Thailand's capital market framework, suitable for hedging, pricing, and structured transactions. Pornanong Budsaratragoon, Secretary-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Thailand, stated that this move will broaden investment options, strengthen risk management mechanisms, and promote the market toward greater transparency and diversification. The regulators also indicated that subsequent rules will be drafted to adjust derivative licensing systems, allowing digital asset-related institutions to offer contract products linked to cryptocurrencies, while simultaneously reviewing standards for trading, clearing, and risk control.

The European Union plans to implement the 20th round of sanctions against Russia, including a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency transactions with Russia, aimed at blocking Russian channels to bypass sanctions. Additionally, the sanctions will be expanded to include more Russian banks and certain third-country banks, expected to be approved on February 24. Russia, on the other hand, is promoting digital asset legislation to respond to these regulatory measures.

Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang posted on X, pointing out that Hong Kong's gradually relaxing policies will promote the development of licensed companies and the industry, with stablecoin issuer licenses expected to be issued starting in March. He suggested establishing a dedicated agency to coordinate the direction of digital and crypto assets and introducing regulations to support the compliant development of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).

The White House has set the deadline for the CLARITY Act to March 1, pressuring lawmakers to reach a compromise on stablecoin regulation within 18 days. A closed-door meeting on February 10 did not reach an agreement, but showed progress in negotiations. Banks submitted written documents insisting on banning stablecoin yield to protect deposits, while crypto companies are advocating for exemptions from transaction-related rewards.

The UK Treasury has selected HSBC's blockchain platform Orion to pilot the issuance of digital government bonds DIGIT. HSBC stated that blockchain can accelerate settlement and improve efficiency in the debt market. This project will be conducted in a regulated testing environment, and the Orion platform has successfully issued over $3.5 billion in digital bonds.

Ray Dalio warns that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are appealing to governments not only for efficiency but primarily for increased control, threatening financial privacy and posing risks to global investors.

SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins outlined the SEC's key focus areas at the congressional session, including reducing corporate compliance costs, supporting IPOs and capital formation, promoting digital asset regulation, reviewing traditional regulatory tools, and strengthening investor protection and enforcement. The SEC will continue to protect investors and promote market fairness.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced new guidelines allowing licensed brokers to expand their business to include virtual asset collateralized financing and the use of virtual assets as collateral, opening up market liquidity. At the same time, a high-level framework for perpetual contracts is provided for professional investors, and affiliated companies are permitted to act as market makers to invigorate the virtual asset trading ecosystem and promote market development.

Etherium co-founder and ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin has sparked a controversial discussion once again on the long-term security of Bitcoin. In a discussion, he cautioned that Bitcoin might have an existential issue in future. In particular, he mentioned the idea of the so-called Q Day – the point at

Hong Kong will allow licensed platforms to offer crypto perpetual contracts under strict risk controls for professional investors. The SFC will limit access to institutions and require strong systems to manage leverage volatility and liquidations. Bitcoin and Ether will anchor crypto

Malaysia's central bank plans to introduce local currency stablecoins and tokenised deposits by 2026, with projects led by Standard Chartered, Capital A, Maybank, and CIMB to enhance wholesale payments and evaluate financial stability implications.

SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda emphasizes that tokenization of assets like U.S. Treasuries is moving from concept to reality. He advocates for updated regulations that support blockchain innovation while protecting investors, reflecting cautious optimism in the evolving financial landscape.

Key Insights Ripple and Zand link RLUSD and AEDZ to support regulated stablecoin payments and custody in the UAE. The partnership focuses on XRPL-based issuance, liquidity, and compliance-led banking integration. The move supports the UAE digital economy strategy and institutional blockchain

On February 11, news reports indicated that the White House's second round of consultations on stablecoin regulation failed to reach an agreement between banks and crypto companies. The core disagreement centered on whether "stablecoins can offer yields or rewards to users." Several crypto organizations engaged in discussions with major U.S. banks, but deadlock over key provisions has once again hindered the development of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework. The meeting was directly related to the proposed CLARITY Act. This legislation is based on the digital asset regulatory framework proposed by the GENIUS Act and has been passed by the House of Representatives, but the Senate has yet to advance it. The yield provisions are seen as the biggest obstacle. Banks are concerned that if stablecoins offer interest or rewards, it will divert traditional deposits, weaken banks' ability to lend to households and small to medium-sized enterprises, and thus impact financial system stability.

The 2021 Texas blackout stands in stark contrast to Melbourne residents using blockchain technology to trade solar energy, showcasing the potential of distributed energy networks in climate action. This type of network transforms individual climate efforts into economic value and enhances system resilience. Despite challenges related to technical interoperability, business models, and regulation, diverse distributed energy practices are emerging worldwide, reshaping the relationship between people and energy and advancing the social contract for addressing climate change.