Macroeconomics

Wells Fargo predicts that the 2026 US tax season will see a tax refund wave of approximately $150 billion, which will rekindle investors' risk appetite and boost the stock market and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Overall refunds are expected to exceed $500 billion, an increase of about 30%. High-income earners will channel their additional savings into the market, and the retail sector will also benefit. However, low-income families may prioritize debt repayment or savings.

Robert Kiyosaki predicts a significant stock market crash, but the community challenges his track record of failed forecasts. He remains optimistic about Bitcoin and suggests it as a good investment despite past inaccuracies in his predictions.

Arthur Hayes warns that the recent divergence between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 tech stocks signals a potential AI-driven credit crisis, prompting central banks to resume large-scale money printing. He argues Bitcoin acts as a liquidity indicator and predicts consumer debt defaults if 20% of US knowledge workers lose jobs, resulting in significant credit losses. Hayes anticipates regional banks will face immediate pressure, leading to a credit freeze and a Fed response that could push Bitcoin to new highs. His company may also invest in altcoins Zcash and Hyperliquid when the Fed changes its policy.

Universa Investments founder Mark Spitznagel warns that the S&P 500 could surge to 8,000 points but then face a sharp crash. He points out that the current market is nearing the end of the bubble and advises investors to prepare for a potential 80% correction while remaining rational and not being swayed by market sentiment.

Robert Kiyosaki draws attention to his stock market crash prediction. He expects the price of crypto to surge soon.  As a Greater Depression approaches, he encourages accumulating real assets. The prices of crypto assets are trading at much lower prices as compared to Q4 2025. Despite th

Analysts predict that a substantial Tax Refund season in the U.S. could inject up to $150 billion into the economy, potentially boosting investments in Bitcoin and other assets. While this influx might revive risk-taking among investors, market conditions differ from previous years, affecting overall impact.

Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped 55% since October 2025, down to $44 billion, indicating bearish market sentiment and decreased trader participation. Institutions have reduced their positions in response to price pressure, and hedging sentiment has generally increased. Despite volatility, long-term holders continue to accumulate Bitcoin, demonstrating market resilience. Analysts predict a potential bottoming out and rebound.

Willy Woo states that the Bitcoin bear market can be divided into three stages: the first stage is liquidity collapse and price decline; the second stage is the global stock market entering a bear market; the third stage is liquidity improving and the final sell-off occurring. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the second stage.

Stablecoin Bridge, acquired by Stripe last year, has received conditional approval from the OCC to become a federally chartered bank. This license will allow Bridge to hold crypto, issue stablecoins, and manage reserves under federal oversight, enabling clearer legal frameworks for businesses in the crypto space.

From 16:00 to 16:15 (UTC) on February 17, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) achieved a +1.04% increase, with the price rising from $1,966.04 to $1,986.75. The short-term performance outperformed mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and SOL. Market activity has significantly increased, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $18.88 billion. Market attention continues to rise, and volatility has intensified. The main drivers of this movement stem from macro-level liquidity improvements and technical bullish signals. First, the Federal Reserve initiated a moderate rate cut cycle in mid-February, leading to

Robert Kiyosaki warns of an impending stock market crash, advising investors to buy Bitcoin and other nontraditional assets during market panic. He plans to re-enter the market when prices drop, highlighting a contrarian investment strategy amidst economic uncertainty.

A survey by Bank of America shows that investors' bearish positions on the US dollar have fallen to their lowest since 2012, while Bitcoin and the US dollar index have shown an unusual positive correlation. If this trend continues, a decline in the dollar may be unfavorable for Bitcoin; conversely, a rebound in the dollar could drive Bitcoin higher, increasing market volatility.

The United States is currently facing an AI data center power crisis, with electricity prices soaring by 36%, while China has gained an advantage in renewable energy and power infrastructure. China has completed multiple ultra-high-voltage projects, with the proportion of clean energy surpassing 60%, demonstrating a strong strategic moat in the high-energy-consuming AI era. This suggests that China's industrial strength and energy development advantages will influence global AI competition.

The cryptocurrency market cap has decreased by 0.03%, affected by US-Iran talks and US Housing reports. Bitcoin and Ethereum show minimal price changes, while liquidations remain significant. Global markets also reflect these dynamics with varied reactions.

By the end of 2025, China's broad money supply (M2) reached 340.29 trillion RMB, a surge of 141.64 trillion compared to 2019. Analysis indicates that the main sources include credit expansion, government debt monetization, and financial asset purchases. Former Vice President of the Bank of China Wang Yongli criticized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a form of currency anchoring, considering it a step backward, and emphasized that modern currencies no longer rely on the gold standard, reflecting the accelerated devaluation of the global fiat currency system.

Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" Kiyosaki warns that a stock market crash is imminent, viewing it as an opportunity for wealth. He holds gold, silver, Ethereum, and Bitcoin, and plans to continue increasing his holdings. He emphasizes that the crash will be a good opportunity to buy high-quality assets at a discount.

Paradigm released a research report indicating that Bitcoin mining accounts for only 0.23% of global energy consumption and 0.08% of carbon emissions, and argues that miners are regulators of the power grid and should not be viewed as a burden. As AI data centers rapidly expand, many mining companies have begun to shift towards AI computing services, making electricity cost optimization an important issue. The report suggests that policies should take a more comprehensive view of the relationship between Bitcoin mining and the electricity market.

Wang Yongli discussed in the article the transition of modern currency from the gold standard to a state where it is no longer anchored to specific assets, pointing out that the idea of returning to the gold standard or seeking new anchoring assets is a misunderstanding of the nature and development laws of money, and emphasizing that the total money supply should flexibly adapt to economic changes.

Digital asset investment products faced four weeks of net redemptions, totaling US$3.74 billion. Despite initial inflows, US investors withdrew US$403 million while foreign buyers added US$230 million. Bitcoin and Ethereum saw significant outflows, while select altcoins like XRP and Solana attracted capital, indicating cautious investor sentiment.