Monetary Policy

The Bank of England announced on February 10th the selection of Chainlink to participate in the "Synchronous Lab" project, exploring how central bank digital currencies can be atomically settled with blockchain assets. Eighteen institutions including Swift, London Stock Exchange Group, Chainlink, UAC Labs, and others are testing scenarios such as tokenized bonds, collateral management, and foreign exchange trading. The plan will launch in spring and operate for six months, simulating real-world transactions in a controlled environment without handling actual funds.

U.S. non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs in January, far exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. This result significantly dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, leading to sharp fluctuations in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin plummeted over $3,000 in a single night, and Ethereum fell below $2,000. Although it has a short-term impact on the market, the substantial downward revision of the 2025 employment data may suggest underlying economic weakness, and investors should pay attention to future economic trends.

The Bank of England has launched the "Sync Lab," collaborating with 18 institutions including Chainlink to test settlement mechanisms for central bank digital currencies and blockchain assets, aiming to modernize the real-time gross settlement system RTGS. This move reflects a focus on digital asset integration, paves the way for future stablecoin regulations, and demonstrates the UK's firm stance in the global digital finance race.

The US January employment report showed 130,000 new jobs, nearly twice market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, indicating the labor market remains resilient. Strong data pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.2%, reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates recently. The tightening financial environment has put pressure on risk assets. Analysts point out that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity; rising government bond yields lead to capital shifting toward safer assets.

The Central Bank of Malaysia is piloting three regulatory sandbox programs to research and develop stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits, with a focus on using Ringgit stablecoins for cross-border settlements and promoting the development of future central bank digital currencies.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, CME "Federal Reserve Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until March is 94.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 5.9%. By April, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 20.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.5%, and the probability of a total 50 basis point cut is 1%. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 48.1%.

_Ripple files Docket OP-1877 seeking Fed payment account for RLUSD reserves, linking XRP Ledger stablecoin custody to the Federal Reserve._ Ripple has requested access to a Federal Reserve payment account for reserves backing its stablecoin, RLUSD. The filing, listed under Docket OP-1877,

SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins outlined the SEC's key focus areas at the congressional session, including reducing corporate compliance costs, supporting IPOs and capital formation, promoting digital asset regulation, reviewing traditional regulatory tools, and strengthening investor protection and enforcement. The SEC will continue to protect investors and promote market fairness.

The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data shows that 130,000 new jobs were added in January, far exceeding expectations. The labor market demonstrated resilience, easing concerns about an economic slowdown. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, and strong data has reduced the immediate need to implement easing policies. Additionally, Bitcoin experienced a brief rally before pulling back.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinshi, Gammaroad Capital Partners Chief Investment Officer Jordan Rizzuto stated that the potential employment situation appears to be stronger than expected and may even be more optimistic than the recent assessments and descriptions by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). If these data are maintained in revisions in the coming months, the implications for monetary policy suggest that we are closer to the neutral interest rate than the market previously priced in.

BlockBeats News, February 11 — Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh stated that there are some initial signs of the labor market tightening again, but there is still a way to go before it is fully tight. Given the economy’s continued outperformance, the focus of the FOMC will shift to inflation. We still believe the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates twice this year; however, if the CPI released on Friday unexpectedly rises, it could cause the Fed to lean hawkish. (Jin10)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 21.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 35.7%, with an 58.9% chance of holding rates steady, and a 5.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 49%.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, a Reuters survey shows that out of 101 surveyed economists, 60 believe that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.25%-3.5% range before the end of June.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has launched three major initiatives to test the applications of the "Ringgit stablecoin" and "tokenized deposits." Participating institutions include Standard Chartered Bank, Maybank, and UOB Group. The aim is to study their impact on financial stability, with plans to provide clear guidelines by the end of 2026.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued new guidelines allowing licensed virtual asset brokers to provide margin financing services and establish a regulatory framework for perpetual contracts, limited to professional investors. The aim is to enhance market liquidity and risk management while opening up related companies to act as market makers. The SFC emphasizes a step-by-step approach to developing the digital asset market.

On February 11, news reports indicated that the White House's second round of consultations on stablecoin regulation failed to reach an agreement between banks and crypto companies. The core disagreement centered on whether "stablecoins can offer yields or rewards to users." Several crypto organizations engaged in discussions with major U.S. banks, but deadlock over key provisions has once again hindered the development of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework. The meeting was directly related to the proposed CLARITY Act. This legislation is based on the digital asset regulatory framework proposed by the GENIUS Act and has been passed by the House of Representatives, but the Senate has yet to advance it. The yield provisions are seen as the biggest obstacle. Banks are concerned that if stablecoins offer interest or rewards, it will divert traditional deposits, weaken banks' ability to lend to households and small to medium-sized enterprises, and thus impact financial system stability.

February 11 News, due to the market's high attention to the upcoming release of the U.S. January non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, Bitcoin prices have sharply retreated to around $66,000 in the past 24 hours. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are moving in sync, with Wall Street generally believing that employment may rebound, which would weaken the Federal Reserve's possibility of cutting interest rates in June, thereby putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the January employment report today. Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by about 70,000, higher than December's 50,000, indicating that the labor market, while slowing, remains resilient. The forecast range varies from a decrease of 10,000 jobs to an increase of 135,000, with the unemployment rate possibly remaining at 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual growth rate slowing to 3.6%.

On February 11, Bitcoin prices slightly retreated but remained around $66,000, with the market holding its breath as it awaits guidance from several key macroeconomic data points, including the latest U.S. employment report, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the potential risk of a government shutdown. Ethereum also came under pressure, with prices still below $2,000, reflecting a generally weak risk appetite in the crypto market. The current total market capitalization of digital assets is approximately $2.29 trillion, down about 2.5% over the past 24 hours. In the United States, the delayed January employment report will disclose non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage inflation, which are considered important indicators for assessing the economic start in 2026. Previously, in December, about 50,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Economists expect January's new job additions to rebound to 55,000, with the unemployment rate likely remaining unchanged. Tariff policies, immigration restrictions, and the accelerated replacement of traditional jobs by artificial intelligence are seen as the main variables disrupting the labor market.

On February 11, Malaysia's Central Bank (BNM) announced plans to launch three pilot projects by 2026 focused on local currency stablecoins and tokenized deposits, primarily serving domestic and cross-border wholesale payment scenarios. The initiatives are coordinated by the Malaysia Digital Asset Innovation Hub (DAIH), which is the regulatory sandbox environment in Malaysia for testing crypto and blockchain financial applications. BNM revealed in the announcement that these three projects will be led by multiple local and international banks. One project, led by Standard Chartered Malaysia and Capital A, will focus on Ringgit stablecoin settlement for B2B scenarios; the other two, led by Maybank and CIMB, will concentrate on tokenized deposit schemes for payment purposes. These tests aim to evaluate the potential impact of stablecoins and on-chain deposits on the monetary system, liquidity management, and financial stability.

US yields have fallen, hinting at a potential rate cut in 2026, driving Gold and Silver prices up. This raises speculation about a crypto market bull run, as investors may allocate more to high-risk assets.