BlockBeats message, March 29, according to The Washington Post, the Trump administration has recently been vacillating between claiming that the war is about to end and threatening to expand the scale of the conflict. A White House spokesperson had previously warned that if Iran does not abandon its nuclear ambitions and does not stop threats against the United States and its allies, Trump “is prepared to launch a devastating strike against it.”
According to U.S. officials, over the past month, discussions within the Trump administration have included the possible seizure of Khark Island (an important Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf) and a surprise raid on other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz, to search for and destroy weapons that could be used to attack merchant ships and warships.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that Khark Island will no longer be controlled by Iran by the end of the month is 3%, and the probability that it will no longer be controlled by Iran by the end of April is 30%.
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