Solana DEX 大洗牌！HumidiFi 市占率 65%，Raydium Orca 將被淘汰

Solana DEX upheaval, active market makers (AMM) account for 50% of trading volume, with HumidiFi leading at 65%. Independent DEXs are dead; passive AMMs need to integrate with issuance platforms to survive. Raydium and Orca face structural disadvantages, trading at 10-14x P/S but with declining revenue.

The Life and Death Divide Between Active and Passive AMMs

The dominance of Solana DEXs will diversify based on asset maturity. Active market maker AMMs will continue to dominate short-tail high-liquidity markets, including major trading pairs like SOL-USDC and SOL-USDT, while passive AMMs will increasingly focus on long-tail assets and new token launches. This differentiation stems from technical differences: active AMMs update quotes multiple times per second via oracles, offering narrower spreads and successfully avoiding toxic traffic.

The winning strategies of these two types of AMMs are fundamentally different: both can benefit from vertical integration, but in opposite directions. Passive AMMs are approaching users through token issuance platforms (such as Pump-PumpSwap, MetaDAO-Futarchy AMM), while active AMMs extend downstream, focusing on trade execution services (like HumidiFi-Nozomi). This strategic divergence will determine future winners and losers.

Mark-up spread analysis shows that active AMMs have positive 30-second profit and loss, successfully avoiding toxic traffic and capturing spreads from benign users. In contrast, passive AMMs perform significantly worse in mark-up spreads. This indicates that most of the SOL-USD trading volume on passive AMMs is not from “organic” user traffic but from arbitrage against outdated quotes. The curves of passive AMMs will always lag behind the rapidly changing reference prices in active AMMs.

Examining traditional AMM trading volume composition, Orca still has over 50% of its volume from SOL-stablecoin pairs. Meteora and Raydium’s SOL-stablecoin trading volumes have also increased in recent months, but at least 85% of these volumes can be attributed to MEV bot activity. Without incentives, in the coming months, LP capital on traditional AMMs for high-liquidity pairs will naturally contract.

How HumidiFi Dominates Active Market Maker AMMs

HumidiFi leads in the active AMM category, holding about 65% market share, with most of its volume concentrated in SOL-USDC (83.3%) and SOL-USDT (14.4%) pairs. Its oracle update command costs are the most efficient among peers, outperforming SolFi, Tessera, and passive AMMs, demonstrating superior mark-up spread performance.

HumidiFi’s core engineering team is Temporal, one of the most technically capable teams on Solana. Temporal also operates other infrastructure products, including Nozomi (trade execution services) and Harmonic (a regional blockchain system aimed at competing with Jito). Co-founder Kevin Pang previously worked at Jump, Paradigm, and Symbolic Capital Partners, bringing essential high-frequency trading expertise.

On-chain data estimates that HumidiFi, since its founding in June 2025 through December, has accumulated approximately $4.1 million in trading revenue, with an average daily gross income of about $24,000. After deducting daily oracle update costs of $9,000–$10,000, implied net income is roughly $14,000–$15,000 per day. Notably, HumidiFi’s weekly SOL-USD trading volume exceeds $9 billion, surpassing Binance, making it the largest trading venue.

Three Major Technical Advantages of HumidiFi

Optimized Oracle Performance: Update commands reduced from 300+ CU to 47 CU, with total transaction costs <500 CU, the lowest in the industry.

Vertical Integration with Temporal: Benefits from the same team’s Nozomi trade execution services, enhancing order prioritization.

High-Frequency Update Capability: An average of 6 million oracle updates per day (about 70 per second), closely tracking market prices.

Raydium and Orca’s Structural Death Spiral

The independent passive AMM model is outdated. Future winners in “passive AMM” will no longer be seen as pure AMMs but as token issuance platforms with integrated AMMs as profit layers. Protocols that do not fall into either of these categories (most notably Raydium and Orca) face structural decline.

In March 2025, Pump launched PumpSwap AMM, cutting off Raydium’s graduation token flow, leading to a continuous decline in Raydium’s market share. Raydium responded with LaunchLab, a white-label solution. However, Pump still maintains dominance, consistently capturing over 90% of the market share. Valuation analysis shows RAY and ORCA trading at 10x and 14x P/S respectively, with revenues continuing to decline.

In contrast, PUMP and MET are trading at approximately 4x and 6x P/S. Although Raydium’s tokens are investable and buybacks are ongoing, their high multiples are fundamentally misaligned with growth prospects. Orca faces similar structural issues. Without clear structural catalysts, it’s difficult to see this trend reversing.