Bitcoin Loses Key Cost Basis Level—What Does It Mean for the Bull Market?

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below a crucial market sentiment gauge and has failed to reclaim it, further piling pressure on its price.

The crypto market leader has corrected over 4% so far this week, relinquishing all the gains from the previous week. This correctional move has ensured it stays below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile, a key market sentiment indicator.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile at around $95,000 and has failed to reclaim this level.
• The 0.75 quantile line shows the cost basis of 75% of Bitcoin’s supply.
• A drop below highlights that over 25% of the asset’s supply is underwater, as investors procured it at higher prices.
• The 0.75 cost distribution quantile is a crucial indicator of a bear market and signals a deep correction when Bitcoin falls below it.
• Interestingly, analysts also associate Bitcoin’s price trend below the key quantile as a potential bottom.

Bitcoin Trends Below Key Level

Bitcoin Supply Quantile Cost Basis Model | GlassnodeThe model showed the prices where different percentages of Bitcoin were acquired, helping identify areas of accumulation and distribution. Notably, the metric has four major trendlines: the Bitcoin price and the 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75 quantiles.

The 0.75 quantile line shows the cost basis of 75% of Bitcoin’s supply. Typically, this is a key sentiment gauge, and a drop below highlights that over 25% of the asset’s supply was bought at a higher price.

Meanwhile, the 0.85 and 0.95 quantiles show the cost basis for a more moderate number of holders. If BTC trades above the 0.95% quantile, it suggests that fewer than 5% of holders are unprofitable, indicating a late-stage bullish market phase.

What Does the Trend Below the 0.75 Quantile Mean?

The 0.75 cost distribution quantile is a crucial indicator of a bear market. When Bitcoin drops below this level, it indicates the market is in a deep correction.

The longer Bitcoin stays below, the more bearish market sentiment becomes. Furthermore, as more holders panic and sell their stash, the further the chances of steeper price declines.

Glassnode confirmed that this brings more distribution pressure and creates market conditions where bears are on top. However, this changes once Bitcoin reclaims the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile.

Interestingly, analysts also associate Bitcoin’s price trend below the key quantile as a potential bottom. The market usually forms a bottom below this level, as seen in 2023 when Bitcoin started an uptrend that endured until the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200.

To reclaim the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, Bitcoin would have to rise by 6.2% from the current market standing. Notably, there is no guarantee this will happen, as the market remains weak and is plagued by macroeconomic uncertainties.