QCP: Bitcoin rebounds above $88,000, options data shows the market will remain volatile rather than crash
BlockBeats News, January 28 — QCP released its daily market analysis stating, "Bitcoin has risen back above the key level of @USD8.8@K. Recently breaking below this level often triggers a rapid decline driven by liquidations; if it can quickly recover, the price will be pulled back into a range-bound zone. Next, the market will face a series of intense U.S. macro events: the FOMC interest rate decision on January 28; the government funding deadline on January 30, which keeps the risk of a shutdown ongoing; and the Senate rescheduling discussions on crypto market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains controlled, with the term structure maintaining a positive spread, so the baseline scenario remains sideways movement rather than a crash.
In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can smoothly resolve the January 30 funding problem. If a temporary solution is passed in time, short-term risk premiums are expected to compress, making crypto assets more like pure Beta trades; if there is a brief misstep, the market may initially fluctuate but recover after an agreement is reached; if the deadlock persists, liquidity could tighten, forcing the market to undergo broader de-risking.
The closer key event is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged interest rates, with the market focusing on when to restart rate cuts. Inflation is still above 2%, and employment is beginning to weaken, prompting the committee to remain cautious and data-dependent. Amid concerns over the Fed’s independence, it is expected to emphasize independence and reiterate ‘waiting for more data’; if a hawkish stance of inaction prevails, it could trigger a rebound in the dollar and cause short-term volatility in risk assets."
Related Articles
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz can't stop Bitcoin's rebound! BTC, ETH, XRP prices rise across the board today
Former Los Angeles police officer convicted of kidnapping teenagers to participate in cryptocurrency robbery
Former Los Angeles police officer convicted of kidnapping a teenager and stealing Bitcoin: $350,000 in digital assets stolen
Delin Holdings disclosed that in February, mining output was 51.712 BTC, with an expected annual Bitcoin production of 640-660 coins.