XRP drops below $2, but massive whales are frantically buying! 42 millionaire wallets quietly born

XRP fluctuates around $2, with Santiment showing a net increase of 42 millionaire wallets at the beginning of the year. Exchange reserves have fallen to 1.7 billion, a 7-year low, while XRPL DEX trading volume reached 1.014 million transactions, a 13-month high. RLUSD surged from 72 million to 1.38 billion in less than a year. 21Shares forecasts a baseline of $2.45, with a bull case of $2.69.

XRP Net Increase of 42 Millionaire Wallets

(Source: Santiment)

Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows that since early 2026, the XRP network has seen a net increase of 42 “millionaire” wallets. These wallets are defined as addresses holding at least 1 million XRP. This is the first growth in this specific group since September 2025. Notably, even though XRP’s price has slightly declined this year, this shift still occurred, indicating that large holders are taking advantage of this weak period to build positions.

This behavior significantly alters the internal market dynamics, as accumulation by major investors can serve as a leading indicator of potential upward trends. Additionally, when these accumulation patterns coincide with waning seller liquidity, the likelihood of price movements increases, leading to demand stabilizing while available supply tightens. At the current price of $1.80, 1 million XRP is worth $1.8 million. These new millionaire wallets represent at least $76 million in additional buying pressure.

Whale accumulation during price dips is a key leading indicator in the crypto market. Unlike retail investors who chase rallies and sell on dips, whales typically possess deeper market insights and more professional analysis. Their contrarian accumulation during downturns often suggests they believe current prices are undervalued and that significant upside is possible. The flow of “smart money” in this context is highly valuable for XRP price forecasts.

Even more noteworthy is that this whale accumulation occurs amid very weak technical signals. XRP is currently trading around $1.80, well below its 200-day moving average of $2.54. This gap suggests a long-term technical bias toward a retracement zone rather than confirming an uptrend, which usually causes momentum traders to remain cautious. However, whales are ignoring these technical resistance levels and choosing to buy when others are fearful, a contrarian move often signaling a market reversal.

Supply Tightening with Exchange Reserves at 7-Year Low

The potential driver behind the surge in whale accumulation could be tightening supply on exchanges. Another analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that the proportion of XRP held on exchanges is at a “bottom” level, around 1.7 billion, a 7-year low. This suggests that after a period of token outflows from exchanges, selling pressure has stabilized.

Within this framework, the decline in exchange-held supply could set the stage for more vigorous upward moves, as the assets available for sale to catch an uptrend are reduced. Historical market behavior shows that declines in exchange reserves often precede price increases, though with some lag. Specifically, data from February to April 2025 can serve as a precedent. Conversely, increases in exchange supply have historically coincided with distribution phases and market tops from July to September 2025.

However, due to insufficient trading volume, the current situation is more complex. Analysts warn that volume expansion sufficient to confirm a trend has not yet materialized. Without a surge in trading volume, any potential upward move is more likely to be a temporary correction rather than a sustained rally. This subtle distinction is crucial for market positioning in 2026. If large holders continue to accumulate while exchange reserves remain low, supply could become scarce. When demand recovers, the market could accelerate rapidly.

Three Major Changes in XRP Supply and Demand Structure

Whale Accumulation: 42 new millionaire wallets, at least $76 million in buying power

Exchange Bottoming Out: Reserves down to 1.7 billion, stable selling pressure

DEX Surge: 14-day average of 1.014 million transactions, 13-month high

XRPL Ecosystem Expansion and 21Shares Three-Scenario Forecast

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Data from CryptoQuant shows that XRPL experienced significant growth in decentralized exchange (DEX) activity in early 2026. The 14-day moving average of DEX trading volume reached approximately 1.014 million transactions, surpassing the peak levels seen since early 2025, hitting a 13-month high. The use of moving averages in this context is meaningful; while daily trading volume spikes can be driven by short-term incentives or market volatility, a breakout above the moving average indicates sustained trading engagement.

RLUSD stablecoin has grown rapidly, with holders around 37,000, and its market cap soared from $7.2 million to approximately $138 million in less than a year. The total value locked (TVL) in XRPL DeFi has exceeded $100 million, and the protocol has undergone upgrades focused on tokenization. For a token like XRP, often driven by speculative positions and legal news, sustained on-chain DEX activity provides a fundamental basis based on trading volume rather than mere speculation.

21Shares links these results to two variables: ETF-driven demand and actual usage within the Ripple ecosystem. The firm notes that the US spot XRP ETF attracted over $1.3 billion in assets in its first month and has experienced 55 consecutive days of inflows. 21Shares also emphasizes potential supply constraints, pointing out that exchange reserves are at their lowest in seven years. The firm suggests that if structural buyers continue increasing their exposure to circulating XRP, a supply shock mechanism could emerge.

Based on these assumptions, 21Shares forecasts a peak price of $2.45 in the baseline scenario, $2.69 in a bull case, and $1.60 in a bear case for 2026. The company believes that XRP’s long-term trajectory depends on whether these infrastructure developments continue to deepen and whether investor demand remains stable.