"Has the decline cycle already ended?" Cathie Wood dismisses the four-year Bitcoin cycle, targeting a market cap of $16 trillion by 2030.

February 3 News, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood publicly questioned the widely accepted four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin, which has long been considered an “iron law.” She stated that the current market correction is much milder than historical levels, and this downturn may have already ended. The market is currently in a phase of building strength for a new upward movement.

Recently, Bitcoin’s price briefly fell to around $77,777, with a decline of nearly 11% over the past week, a significant retracement from the October 2025 high of $124,700. Although this trend has caused anxiety among many retail investors, Wood believes that the $80,000 to $90,000 range is more of a key support level rather than a sign of trend reversal. She pointed out that this correction of about 30% is already showing a more mature market structure compared to the common 70%–80% deep retracements seen in historical cycles.

From a technical perspective, short-term momentum indicators remain weak, with MACD continuing to decline, reflecting that the adjustment pressure over the past few months has not fully dissipated. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, which often indicates that a bottom is forming. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market cap share remains near 60%, indicating that capital is still concentrated in leading assets, and risk appetite has not completely faded.

In terms of long-term logic, Wood remains highly confident. She believes Bitcoin is competing with gold for the “store of value” status. Data shows that since 2022, Bitcoin has increased by approximately 360%, while gold has only risen about 170% during the same period. In her view, this gap suggests that institutions and long-term investors are re-evaluating the role of digital assets.

ARK Invest further predicts that, with increasing scarcity and global adoption, Bitcoin’s potential total market capitalization could reach $16 trillion by 2030, far exceeding its current size. Wood emphasizes that short-term volatility is just a small part of the long-term structural shift, and the true trend is still in the making.