The Israeli military is hunting for spies on Polymarket

Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

The unfair competitive advantage brought by insider information has long been a controversial focus in prediction markets like Polymarket.
Previously, during the U.S. military’s arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, the odds related to the event on Polymarket shifted early. If that suspected insider trading could be explained by fluctuations similar to the “pizza index,” then this time, the presence of an insider on Polymarket has been thoroughly confirmed.
Israeli Military Internal Crackdown on “Insiders”
On February 12, The Jerusalem Post reported that the Tel Aviv District Court filed charges on Monday against an Israeli civilian and an IDF reservist, accusing them of using classified military information to profit from bets on Polymarket. The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe this behavior posed a serious operational security risk during wartime.
According to a statement released with approval from prosecutors, the suspects were arrested during joint operations involving the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), the security division of the Ministry of Defense, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reservists are leveraging confidential information obtained through their military duties to place bets on military operations and profit from them.
Following these investigations, prosecutors stated they have evidence of improper conduct by the civilian and the reservist, leading to charges of “serious security offenses,” bribery, and obstruction of justice. They also requested the court extend the suspects’ detention until the case is resolved.
Beyond the publicly released information, further details of the case remain legally restricted, including the identities of the defendants, specific betting content, and the flow of information involved.
Tracking the Insider Activity
Although we cannot identify the true identities or account details of the insider, the X community had already spotted an account exhibiting obvious abnormal behavior on Polymarket. The Jerusalem Post also published a screenshot of this account’s profits in their report.

As shown in the image above, a user named Rundeep entered Polymarket in June 2025, and subsequently achieved a 100% win rate across six prediction markets related to Israeli military actions. Five of these bets were placed when the probability was below 50%, ultimately earning over $150,000.

Notably, Odaily Planet Daily found that aside from these six successful bets, Rundeep had one loss on Polymarket. That loss was unrelated to Israel but involved a prediction on whether the U.S. military would take action against Iran on Saturday, June 21, 2025. The U.S. intelligence and allied intelligence remain somewhat uncertain about this.
The Real Impact of Prediction Market Manipulation—A Deep Reflection
Due to Polymarket’s open and permissionless nature, anyone can freely place bets on the platform. Objectively, this provides groups with informational advantages a more convenient channel to monetize their insights—driven by profit motives, those holding unequal information are tempted to exploit it, and insider traders are bound to lose control eventually.
If such incidents occurred in sports, entertainment, or other conventional fields, the impact might still be manageable. But when these events happen in politics or even wartime, insider betting scandals could lead to terrifying consequences that are hard to imagine.
For example, in this case, if an opposing force had used insider information on Polymarket to anticipate Israeli military actions, it could significantly influence subsequent developments. While many may find it hard to empathize with Israel, the fact is that such incidents could happen to any entity.
In traditional betting domains, public affairs like political elections, legislative outcomes, or wars are usually subject to clear regulations. Whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory restrictions in the future remains a long-term regulatory game.