Wood believes that AI is not a bubble but a long-term investment. The recent decline in Bitcoin stems from emotions and liquidity, and investors should return to assessing technological maturity and overall economic conditions, considering multiple factors.
Cathie Wood (Wood) expressed her views on the resurgence of recent AI bubble rumors and the collective panic among Bitcoin investors during the Ark Invest program. She reminded investors to identify investment value through technological maturity, asset valuation, and macro liquidity. The following summarizes her viewpoints from the video, analyzing her perspective on artificial intelligence, crypto assets, and the current financial environment.
Wood explained with a chart that the capital expenditure in the tech industry as a percentage of GDP has approached historical highs, similar to previous bubble periods, causing concern among investors. She stated that she knows many experienced investors who were young during the internet bubble era and are now gray-haired seniors. Having gone through that bubble period, they believe in protecting themselves and their companies from the impact of bubbles. They tend to be more conservative in corporate decision-making, trying to avoid repeating past mistakes.
Wood said that the capital expenditure cycle related to artificial intelligence will be longer than in the past. The core debate is not just about the scale of spending but whether these technological investments can translate into stable and sustainable productivity in the future. During the internet bubble era, most technologies were immature and costly. Today’s price-to-earnings ratios are completely different from before. Now, a major disruption called artificial intelligence has emerged. Companies must invest in AI to stay competitive; they need to seize the opportunity. However, some shareholders focused only on short-term gains do not share this view.
In recent years, gold prices have continued to rise, but Bitcoin has noticeably retreated from its highs. Wood pointed out with a chart that since 2019, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold returns is only about 0.14 (note: 1 indicates perfect correlation), indicating that Bitcoin’s price behavior differs significantly from gold and is more similar to high-volatility risk assets rather than traditional safe havens.
She noted that recent negative rumors have dampened market sentiment, putting downward pressure on prices and triggering phased sell-offs. Such situations are common in highly volatile assets and often amplify short-term price fluctuations.
Wood also mentioned that recent Bitcoin volatility partly stems from renewed attention to quantum computing issues. However, she believes that within the foreseeable next ten or more years, quantum computing is not yet capable of posing a substantial threat to current blockchain architectures. In contrast, changes in macro liquidity have a more direct impact on the market, including government budget uncertainties, employment data, Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, and international interest rate trends—all of which create tightening pressures on the capital environment and amplify market turbulence.
Finally, Wood reminded that every time the market experiences sharp fluctuations, there are often opinions afterward that missed the low entry point. However, when the actual lows occur, market sentiment tends to turn into intense panic. She believes investment decisions should not only focus on price trends but also incorporate a comprehensive assessment of technology, macro environment, policy regulation, and market structure to reduce decision errors.
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