New Year's Eve Rebound! BTC drops below 69,000, ETH falls below 2,000, mainstream meme coins suffer 10% decline

Cryptocurrency markets attempted a rebound over the weekend, but momentum quickly faded. Bitcoin failed to hold above $69,000, Ethereum continued to struggle below $2,000, and mainstream meme coins DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE each suffered declines of 8-10%.
(Background: The 10-year “Spring Festival Red Envelope Rally” for Bitcoin ended in the Year of the Snake—can the Year of the Horse turn things around?)
(Additional context: NBC anchor kidnapping case shocks the U.S.—$6 million Bitcoin ransom actually helped the FBI?)

Table of Contents

• Ethereum drops below $2,000 as whales buy the dip
• Mainstream meme coins rebound but remain far from their highs
• Bottomed out or just the prelude to further decline?

February was a nightmare for Bitcoin bulls. At the start of the month, Bitcoin was above $80,000, but as tech stocks weakened and leveraged positions were liquidated in succession, the price plummeted to $61,000 on February 5, hitting a 15-month low.

Before press time, Bitcoin was trading around $68,205, rebounding about 12% from the low, but it still couldn’t regain the $69,000 level.

According to VanEck analysis, the main drivers of this sell-off include a roughly $14 billion evaporation of stablecoin market cap from December to February (including $7 billion outflow in a single week), record-breaking outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, and a sharp decline in market liquidity. Technically, the $69,000 support has turned into resistance; if it cannot be reclaimed effectively, the key support below is at $65,000.

Overall, Bitcoin’s February decline of 14.4% marks its worst February performance in nearly a decade, down 44% from its all-time high last October.

Ethereum drops below $2,000 as whales buy the dip

Ethereum’s situation is even more severe than Bitcoin’s. ETH broke below the psychological $2,000 level last night, currently trading around $1,951, with narrow fluctuations between $1,900 and $1,975.

On-chain data shows a polarized picture: mid-sized wallets holding 100 to 1,000 ETH have entered capitulation, decreasing from 9.79 million ETH to 8.32 million ETH; however, large whales holding over 100,000 ETH have increased their holdings from 2.75 million to 3.68 million ETH, actively accumulating against the trend.

Analysts previously warned of a reverse cup-and-handle pattern forming on ETH; if it falls below the $1,900 support, the price could drop as low as $1,665. However, the large whale accumulation may suggest smart money is positioning at the bottom.

Mainstream meme coins rebound but remain far from their highs

If Bitcoin and Ethereum are “injured,” meme coins are “severely wounded.” As of mid-February, most mainstream meme coins have fallen over 85% from their all-time highs, severely damaging retail investor confidence.

Dogecoin (DOGE): Currently around $0.096, down 87% from its all-time high. DOGE has recently seen a slight rebound, but technical signals suggest a possible retest of lower levels. It’s consolidating between $0.10 and $0.12; if it cannot reclaim $0.12 (the 20-day moving average), further downside pressure is likely.

Shiba Inu (SHIB): Around $0.0000065, down 93% from its all-time high, making it the deepest decline among mainstream meme coins. Market cap is approximately $3.83 billion, down 6.6% over the past 7 days. However, exchange net outflows of SHIB have increased, indicating some investors are transferring tokens to cold wallets for long-term holding.

PEPE: About $0.0000037, down 86% from its May 2024 high of $0.000028. Despite the sharp drop, PEPE’s daily trading volume remains above $550 million, showing market interest in this “frog” meme persists. On-chain data also indicates whales are quietly accumulating at low levels.

Additionally, Solana ecosystem tokens BONK at around $0.0000062 with a market cap of $558 million; FLOKI at $0.0000562, currently holding above the 20-day moving average. Overall, meme coins have declined about 16% year-to-date, with the brief January rebound fully absorbed.

Are we at the bottom or just at the start of a downtrend?

Market opinions are sharply divided.

The bearish camp includes Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, warning Bitcoin could fall to $50,000, and Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg, who expects Bitcoin to retest lows before summer.

On the bullish side, some analysts believe the market is in the early stages of bottoming out, and bets on Bitcoin returning to $100,000 by the end of the year on Polymarket remain high.

In the short term, whether Bitcoin can recover above $69,000 and Ethereum can hold above $2,000 will be key indicators of whether the rebound can sustain. If prices fall again below $65,000 and $1,900, another wave of panic selling may be unavoidable.