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Negative U.S. liquidity growth suggests Bitcoin has not reached a confirmed market bottom.
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Mayer Multiple at 0.67 and $41K holder price hint BTC may revisit lower levels.
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Analyst sees $45K–$50K as key demand zone, with possible bottom by Sept.
Crypto analyst Crypto Rover said the crypto market has not reached its final bottom yet. He shared the assessment this week on social media, focusing on Bitcoin price behavior and liquidity conditions. The comments addressed global markets, current liquidity trends, and why recent price levels may reflect only a temporary low.
Liquidity Conditions Still Point Lower
According to Crypto Rover, U.S. liquidity remains the main driver behind major crypto market bottoms. He noted that year-over-year liquidity growth in the United States is still negative. This means capital continues leaving the system rather than entering it.
Notably, Crypto Rover said crypto assets tend to sell off before other markets during liquidity contractions. He added that equities usually follow the same pattern. He linked the current environment to rising corporate bankruptcies and increasing consumer debt defaults.
However, he stressed that liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve remains insufficient to support a sustained market reversal. This liquidity backdrop, he said, reduces the likelihood of a full market bottom forming soon. That leads directly to on-chain indicators, which he also reviewed.
On-Chain Metrics Suggest More Downside
Crypto Rover pointed to the Mayer Multiple as a key valuation metric. Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms occurred when the metric dropped below 0.6. Currently, it stands near 0.67, according to his data.
He also referenced the long-term holder realized price. This metric reflects the average acquisition price of long-term Bitcoin holders. In past cycles, Bitcoin prices bottomed near this level. Crypto Rover said it currently sits around $41,000.
Meanwhile, he highlighted mining electrical costs as another floor indicator. Present estimates place production costs near $57,500. During bear markets, he noted, these costs often fall 15% to 20%, implying a range near $45,000.
Demand Zones and Timing Signals
From a technical perspective, Crypto Rover identified $45,000 to $50,000 as a major demand zone. He said ETF approvals occurred in this range. He also noted that the August 2024 crash bottom formed there.
Additionally, he pointed to strong institutional and whale accumulation within that zone. He added that this cycle differs structurally, as Bitcoin reached a new high before the halving.
According to Crypto Rover, these factors suggest the bottom could form earlier than expected. He estimated a possible window between August and September, based on current market structure and liquidity trends.
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