Foreign media: Elon Musk has nearly an 80% chance of becoming the world's first trillionaire this year

Inventory of Predictive Market Arbitrage Strategies: Low-Risk Money Printing Machine or High-Risk Gamble?

Decentralized prediction markets led by Polymarket and Kalshi have accumulated over $9 billion in monthly trading volume by 2025, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of political, economic, and sports events. As AI technology drives the emergence of various arbitrage strategies, from discovering cross-platform mispricings to large-scale information manipulation, thousands of traders are participating. However, these strategies that rely on market inefficiencies and information asymmetry are not without risks. This article will analyze the principles, processes, and potential dangers of each strategy. Basic Logic: What does Polymarket's "Shared Order Book" represent? Before diving into arbitrage strategies, it’s essential to understand Polymarket’s core mechanism: the (Shared Order Book). Unlike traditional exchanges, Polymarket's YES

"Polymarket Tutorial 2025" Complete Interface Analysis: Market Viewing, Placing Orders, Leaderboard, Rewards — All Explained at Once

The article introduces the features of the Polymarket platform, including market search, personal account information, leaderboards, and reward mechanisms, helping users understand trading strategies, fund flows, and market participation depth. The article also analyzes the core sections of the trading interface, such as the market probability chart, order book, and order placement area, and distinguishes the characteristics and risks of binary markets versus multiple-choice markets.

Kalshi plans to disclose insider trading disciplinary actions, signaling the start of a professional era in prediction market regulation

Regulatory chief Robert DeNault of the prediction market platform Kalshi announced that Kalshi plans to publicly disclose a series of insider trading disciplinary notices to users within the next few weeks, as a result of months of clearing a backlog of suspicious transactions; CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed that the monitoring system "Poirot" has completed over 200 investigations, with some cases already handed over to law enforcement agencies.

CLARITY bill approval rate drops to 44%, White House stablecoin compromise plan announced

White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Vitter outlined a compromise draft of the bill to representatives from the cryptocurrency industry and banking sector. The core provision bans companies from earning yields on idle stablecoin balances, shifting the discussion toward activity-based reward mechanisms linked to transactions or network participation. Data from the Polymarket prediction platform shows that the probability of the bill passing this year has dropped to 44% at one point.

$3 million bet on ZachXBT investigation target! Prediction market odds soar, which crypto company will be exposed for insider trading?

On February 24, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted on social media that he will release a major investigation into one of the "most profitable companies in the crypto industry" on February 26, predicting that the market will heat up rapidly. Betting volume around the event of "the next crypto company exposed for insider trading" has approached $3 million, and market sentiment has clearly shifted toward high speculation and information warfare. This prediction contract mainly reflects traders' judgments about the potential investigation targets rather than confirmed facts. As a blockchain-based prediction platform, Polymarket allows users to trade contracts on real-world event outcomes with real funds. Its odds are often seen as real-time indicators of market confidence and expected distribution, making it an important tool for observing unresolved events in the crypto industry, especially after the 2024 US elections.

Kalshi has removed all non-employee X affiliate account icons.

Foresight News reports that Kalshi News tweeted that the prediction market platform Kalshi has removed all non-employee X affiliated account icons. Regarding the online rumor that "X removed Kalshi affiliated account icons according to the updated paid partnership policy," they stated that the X team was not involved in the decision-making.