Financial Times: NVIDIA to invest $30 billion in OpenAI, replacing last year's $10 billion partnership

The Financial Times reports that NVIDIA is about to invest $30 billion in OpenAI, replacing last year’s billion-dollar cooperation plan, signaling a shift in the AI industry from “big promises” to “pay upfront.”
(Background: Breaking! NVIDIA invests $100 billion to collaborate with OpenAI and build a 10GW AI data center, causing NVDA to jump 3.9%)
(Additional context: Amazon reportedly plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in OpenAI, pushing its own chip Trainium to challenge NVIDIA’s dominance)

The Financial Times today (20th) reports that NVIDIA is finalizing a $30 billion equity investment in OpenAI, expected to be completed by the end of this week. This deal will replace the $100 billion long-term cooperation plan announced in September 2025, which promised to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems over several years but was put on hold amid shaken confidence in the AI industry.

The figure has shrunk by 70%, but the nature is entirely different: last year’s billion-dollar commitment was installment-based, while this $30 billion is real cash. NVIDIA is no longer just a “future supplier” but has become a major shareholder in OpenAI.

It is understood that this investment is part of a larger fundraising round for OpenAI. The total funding is expected to exceed $100 billion, with participants including Amazon (up to $50 billion), SoftBank (around $30 billion), and Microsoft. Prior to this, OpenAI was valued at $730 billion; after the funding, it could surpass $850 billion.

From Supply Chain Relationship to Capital Ties

What’s most intriguing about this deal isn’t the amount but the structure. Sources reveal that OpenAI will reinvest most of the new funds “back into NVIDIA hardware.” In other words, a significant portion of NVIDIA’s $30 billion investment will flow back to itself in the form of orders.

This is a clever capital cycle: NVIDIA uses equity investment to secure hardware orders, while locking in the long-term demand from the industry’s largest customer. OpenAI gains funds to expand computing power, while NVIDIA benefits from potential equity appreciation and ensures a steady revenue stream.

However, this also means NVIDIA’s fate is more tightly linked to OpenAI’s success or failure. If AI commercialization underperforms (and market doubts are mounting), NVIDIA faces not only revenue slowdown but also potential impairment of its equity investment.

Investor Concerns Deepen About the AI Industry

Since the beginning of this year, investor doubts about the health of the AI industry have intensified. When NVIDIA and OpenAI announced their billion-dollar cooperation last September, market sentiment was still “AI will change everything”; now, the mood is more like “Can AI even make money?”

The rise of open-source models like DeepSeek, questions about ROI on enterprise AI spending, and China’s rapid AI industry catch-up are eroding confidence in NVIDIA’s monopoly on computing power demand. The shift from a billion-dollar plan to a $300 million one also reflects this cooling: the industry is no longer willing to draw big pictures for the distant future but prefers to “spend money on what’s certain.”