What will happen to XRP in March 2026?

XRP price has been under continuous pressure since the beginning of 2026, extending a steady downtrend that started in January. This altcoin has repeatedly failed to break through key resistance levels, causing investors to worry about a potential recovery.

Weak macro sentiment and geopolitical tensions have dampened growth momentum across the entire cryptocurrency market. However, amid these challenges, some historical indicators and on-chain data suggest that XRP may be approaching a significant turning point.

Early investor capitulation may be coming to an end

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator currently shows that XRP is still in the capitulation phase. This is when most investors are still holding unrealized losses. Historically, capitulation often marks the final stage of a downtrend rather than its beginning.

Typically, XRP’s capitulation phase lasts about a month before a reversal. The current phase started in early February. If history repeats, this phase could end in the first week of March. As panic selling subsides, XRP’s price may stabilize, paving the way for a recovery.

XRP NUPL Indicator | Source: Glassnode Another indicator, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), also confirms that many XRP investors are still selling at a loss. Although this indicator briefly rose above 1 in mid-February, signaling a temporary profit-taking phase, it quickly dropped back below 1, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

Getting SOPR close to 1 again is particularly significant. If this indicator stays above 1, it suggests XRP is being sold for profit. Historically, this shift often signals the early stages of a recovery. As selling pressure eases, XRP’s price could rebound.

XRP SOPR Indicator | Source: Glassnode## Historical Data and Outlook for March

Seasonal data shows that over the past 12 years, March has typically delivered an average return of 18% for XRP, making it one of the strongest months in the first quarter.

While past performance does not guarantee future results, historical trends remain important for forecasting. However, external risks still exist. Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially involving the US and Israel, could reduce investors’ risk appetite. Additionally, global financial instability could disrupt seasonal bullish trends.

XRP Monthly Returns | Source: CryptoRank## Key Price Levels to Watch

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.37, holding above the critical support level of $1.27. This level corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, often considered the “bottom support of the bear market.” Successfully defending this level is crucial to prevent a deeper correction.

If the capitulation phase ends and macro conditions stabilize, XRP could bounce from $1.27 and challenge the downtrend that has persisted since January. A break above $1.51 would be a clear sign of a structural change. This level also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, an important milestone in the recovery process.

XRP Price Analysis | Source: TradingView On-chain data suggests XRP will face less resistance until reaching the $1.76–$1.80 zone. In this area, approximately 1.85 billion XRP have been accumulated, with a total value of nearly $2.83 billion. Investors who bought XRP at these levels may start to sell for breakeven, creating temporary resistance.

XRP Heatmap | Source: Glassnode However, if XRP fails to hold the $1.27 level, bullish prospects could be invalidated. A break below the bear market support could push the price down to $1.11. If global instability persists, XRP may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. Nonetheless, March still presents both opportunities and risks for XRP’s price recovery.

Conclusion

In the volatile cryptocurrency market, XRP faces significant challenges but also has potential for recovery if conditions turn favorable. Close monitoring of technical indicators and macro developments will help investors make informed decisions and capitalize on the opportunities that March may bring.