Gold drops 3% amid US-Iran war, Bitcoin rises 12% to become the strongest geopolitical asset

U.S. President Donald Trump authorized the “Operation Epic Fury” to carry out the first airstrike against Iran in the early hours of February 28. Within four days, major asset classes exhibited significant divergence. Bitcoin increased by 12.1% since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, surpassing oil, gold, and silver, and temporarily ranking at the top of the trillion-dollar asset list. Gold initially surged due to safe-haven demand but has fallen 3% since the war officially erupted.

Four Days After the U.S.-Iran War: Overview of Major Asset Performance Data

(Source: TradingView)

Based on the timing of Trump’s authorization for the first airstrike, the price changes of various assets within four days of the outbreak are as follows:

Bitcoin (BTC): +12.1%, from $65,492 to $73,419, the strongest performer among trillion-dollar assets

Brent Crude Oil: +10.4%, from $67.29 to $74.31 per barrel, supported by supply shortages

Nvidia: +2.8%, still lagging behind Bitcoin by 340 basis points when adjusted for market cap ratio (3.1 times)

S&P 500 Index: -0.1%, essentially flat

Gold: -3%, falling below pre-war levels after initial safe-haven buying subsided

Silver: -10.2%, surged initially but fully retraced, the largest decline among major assets

The performance of precious metals is particularly noteworthy. Before the war, as signs of U.S. military deployment to the Middle East emerged, gold and silver rose steadily following historical patterns; however, three days after the war officially started, a strengthening dollar and inflation expectations replaced geopolitical hedging needs, turning gold and silver downward, resulting in net losses for investors holding precious metals.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Structural Analysis of Oil Supply Shock

Although oil’s rise during this U.S.-Iran war aligns with supply logic, its overall performance still lagged behind Bitcoin. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel carrying about one-fifth of global oil shipments daily, prompting insurers to cancel large amounts of war risk policies, and shipping companies to reroute to avoid the area. Since the war’s outbreak, tanker traffic through the strait has decreased by approximately 81%, and freight rates have soared to historic highs.

Brent crude oil once surged 13% to $82 per barrel. Barclays analysts warned that if the blockade persists, oil prices could reach $100 per barrel. OPEC+ announced a daily increase of 206,000 barrels to ease supply pressures, but this measure has not fully alleviated market concerns over long-term supply disruptions.

AI Model Research: Bitcoin’s Role as a Currency in Machine Decision-Making

A study covering 36 cutting-edge AI models, with a total of 9,072 experiments, provides quantitative support for Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties. The study shows that in scenarios choosing the optimal currency asset, 48% of AI agents selected Bitcoin; in specific store-of-value scenarios, the proportion rose to 79%. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 selected Bitcoin in 91% of test scenarios, the highest among participating models.

It’s worth noting that the four-day performance data above contrasts sharply with the long-term data from the beginning of the year—Bitcoin has fallen 16%, while gold has risen 18%. The short-term war window and long-term asset allocation trends belong to different analytical frameworks and should be evaluated separately.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Bitcoin outperform gold after the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war?

In this conflict, initial safe-haven buying of gold quickly dissipated after the war officially broke out, as a strong dollar and inflation expectations dominated capital flows. Bitcoin benefited from institutional demand for decentralized assets as a geopolitical hedge, showing stronger holding momentum within the same time window, and has temporarily topped the trillion-dollar asset rankings since Saturday.

What is the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the oil market?

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil shipments daily, with tanker traffic down approximately 81%. Barclays analysts warn that if the blockade continues, oil prices could reach $100 per barrel. Although OPEC+ announced a daily increase of 206,000 barrels, prolonged blockade may render this insufficient to fully offset the supply gap.

How should we interpret the AI models’ preference for Bitcoin?

The study, involving 36 advanced AI models and 9,072 experiments, reflects machine preferences for the optimal currency under neutral conditions, not investment advice. The fact that 79% of value storage scenarios favored Bitcoin indicates AI systems tend to regard Bitcoin as a core reference asset when evaluating currency properties. However, individual investment decisions still need to consider specific risk contexts.