Oil price shocks sweep the globe, but Bitcoin remains steady at $67,000: Wall Street correlation becomes a key variable

On March 9, news reports indicate that the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to escalate, with international oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, causing significant volatility in global markets. However, amid widespread declines in Asian stock markets and rising bond yields, Bitcoin prices remain relatively stable, currently hovering around $67,000, nearly unchanged from 24 hours ago.

Market analysis suggests that one key reason for Bitcoin’s resilience is its increasing correlation with the U.S. financial markets. Following recent conflicts, the U.S. stock market has shown more resilience compared to Asian markets, and Bitcoin’s movement has become more closely linked to U.S. tech stocks and the Nasdaq Index, contributing to its stability.

Analysts Kriti Gupta and Justin Beimann from JPMorgan Chase in their latest report note that the U.S. has a clear advantage in energy supply, which has somewhat buffered the impact of rising oil prices. Data shows that U.S. oil imports mainly come from Canada and Mexico, with only about 4% from Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. has now become the world’s largest net oil exporter. Therefore, even if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the direct impact on the U.S. is relatively limited.

In contrast, Asian markets have experienced greater shocks. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, Japan’s Nikkei index has fallen about 10%, India’s Nifty index declined approximately 5%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped over 16%. Meanwhile, major U.S. stock index futures have seen smaller declines, indicating regional differences in market risk pricing.

As institutional funds continue to flow into the crypto market, Bitcoin’s asset characteristics are also evolving. Since 2024, the U.S. has launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, providing institutional investors with more direct allocation channels, gradually positioning Bitcoin as an asset linked to U.S. risk assets. Additionally, after Trump’s election at the end of 2024, market expectations for more relaxed crypto regulations have further strengthened this correlation.

Beyond macro factors, Bitcoin previously experienced a significant correction, with prices approaching $60,000. Some analysts believe this adjustment cleared short-term speculative positions, establishing a more solid price foundation for the market.

However, the impact of rising energy prices on the U.S. economy may still have a lag effect. Kriti Gupta and Justin Beimann point out that even with high energy independence, global oil price increases could eventually pass through to consumers via gasoline prices. If oil prices remain high for an extended period, inflationary pressures could re-enter the market’s focus.