Brazil has enacted a sweeping ban on prediction markets and betting platforms, according to local media and government filings. The two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, were confirmed inaccessible to researchers based in the country, with the Banco Central do Brasil publishing a formal resolution citing non-compliance with local derivatives trading regulations.
Regulatory Basis for the Ban
In a resolution published by the Banco Central do Brasil, the platforms were cited as not in compliance with local regulations on derivatives trading and as raising risks for investor protections and market integrity. The central bank’s resolution stated:
“The offering and trading in the country of derivative contracts whose underlying assets are related to the following are prohibited: A real sporting event, virtual online gaming event and a real or virtual event of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other nature that, at the discretion of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is not representative of an economic or financial benchmark.”
Scope of the Brazilian Ban
According to Folha de S. Paolo reporting, Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that some 28 platforms were banned in the country. Durigan characterized the move as part of a broader governmental effort to protect the savings of Brazilians amid a rise in online gambling.
Global Context: Polymarket’s Regulatory Challenges
Polymarket is blocked by over 30 countries around the world, according to its documentation, including OFAC restrictions and national bans. In January, Portugal moved to restrict the platform, following similar moves by France, Belgium, Australia, the UK, Italy, Poland and Singapore, among others. In some countries, only specific markets are banned, such as political betting in Taiwan.
U.S. Regulatory Environment: Contrasting Approach
The United States historically prevented for-profit prediction markets until Kalshi successfully sued the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission for blocking its election markets in 2024, opening the gate for platforms like Polymarket to reenter the country. Today, the CFTC takes a permissive view of prediction markets and is currently suing several states that are looking to ban the nascent sector.
Recent State-Level Enforcement
As of Friday, Wisconsin is the most recent state to lodge a lawsuit against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, alleging their sports event contracts violate the state’s commercial gambling ban.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
SSRN Research Paper: Polymarket’s Pricing Accuracy Comes From 3.14% Informed Traders
According to academic paper published on SSRN on April 20, a research team from London Business School and Yale University analyzed Polymarket’s complete trading records and concluded that the platform’s pricing accuracy is mainly driven by 3.14% of informed traders, rather than the collective intelligence of all accounts. The study covers 98,906 events, 210,322 markets, involves 1.72 million accounts, and total trading volume reaches $13.76 billion.
MarketWhisper53m ago
Research reveals: Polymarket players take home 30% of profits by winning 3% of the positions—more than 70% of players absorb all losses
A new study analyzes Polymarket’s trading records from 2023–2025 and shows that only 3.14% of experienced winners control more than 30% of the profits. Crowd participation alone is not enough to explain overall accuracy; at the same time, it tracks 1,950 highly suspicious insider trading accounts that, while not driving predictions, amplified price volatility. The case shows that large bets were placed and profits were made before the U.S. announced developments regarding Venezuela. The research questions “wisdom of crowds” and emphasizes the need for increasingly strict regulation.
ChainNewsAbmedia2h ago
Polymarket Analysis: Crypto Events Account for 40% of Top 10 Most Volatile Markets
Gate News message, April 27 — Polysights, a third-party prediction market data platform, analyzed over 20,000 Polymarket markets from the past six months and released a volatility ranking. The analysis revealed that cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten most volatile markets
GateNews3h ago
Polymarket Announces April 28 Upgrade: Collateral Assets Migrated to pUSD, Trading Paused for About 1 Hour
According to an official announcement posted on X on April 27 by Polymarket developers, Polymarket will roll out a full platform infrastructure upgrade at 11:00 UTC on April 28, with trading paused for about 1 hour. This upgrade includes new generation trading contracts, a rebuilt order book, and the introduction of a new collateral token, pUSD. The platform’s existing collateral assets will be migrated from USDC.e to pUSD.
MarketWhisper3h ago
Polymarket Non-Sports Volume Reaches $7.5B vs. Kalshi's $1.6B, Says Blockchain Capital Partner
Gate News message, April 27 — According to Spencer Bogart, a partner at Blockchain Capital, Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly identical total trading volumes of approximately $12.2 billion each (Kalshi at $12.29 billion, Polymarket at $12.22 billion). However, when sports-related trades are
GateNews4h ago
