Popular trader Crypto Jack has warned investors to sell Bitcoin now, predicting a potential decline to $48,000 before a recovery in May, citing rising US-Iran tensions, a major Bank of Japan liquidity move, and technical weakness after Bitcoin failed to break above the $75,000 resistance level, according to analysis shared on April 20, 2026.
Geopolitical Pressure: US-Iran Tensions Escalate
The crypto market has faced increased pressure since US-Iran conflict tensions began. Reports indicate that Iran may skip the second round of peace talks scheduled for April 20 in Pakistan, despite US Vice President JD Vance being expected to lead the US delegation. Iran stated that Tehran may not join the talks unless the US lifts its blockade.
Tensions heightened after the US seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran characterized as a “violation of the ceasefire” and promised to respond to.
Bank of Japan’s $2.86 Billion Treasury Liquidation
Beyond geopolitical concerns, financial signals have turned negative. The Bank of Japan reportedly dumped $2.86 billion in US Treasuries, marking the largest liquidation in 30 years, according to market reports. The last time a similar move occurred, the stock market dropped nearly 15%, raising fresh concerns across global financial markets.
Trader Positioning and Market Risk
Large market players are reportedly reducing risk positions. A trader linked to Trump’s circle has opened a $53 million Bitcoin short position at 30x leverage. According to reports, this trader’s record shows 10 wins out of 10 trades, though even a small 7% price move against the position could wipe out the entire short.
Technical Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, Crypto Jack believes Bitcoin still has room for a short-term move higher, with the liquidation heatmap showing a possible push toward $79,000–$80,000 if buying momentum increases. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold the key $60,000 support level, it could fall further toward the $46,000–$52,000 range. Crypto Jack identifies $48,000–$50,000 as a strong re-entry zone.
Seasonal Performance: Why May Could Offer Recovery
Crypto Jack’s main reasoning for suggesting an exit now and a comeback in May is based on seasonal performance. Historically, May has delivered an average return of around 8%, with Bitcoin closing in green in 7 out of 13 years. Additionally, the second quarter often sees strong momentum, with an average surge of around 58%, making it one of the most important periods in the crypto calendar after a typically weaker phase earlier in the year.
The only major factor that could turn the market bullish, even temporarily, is a US-Iran peace deal. If tensions ease, risk assets like Bitcoin could see a quick relief rally.
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