Bitcoin (BTC) sees a short-term rebound, temporarily trading at around $76,230 as of April 22. A bipartisan PACE bill in the U.S. proposes allowing the Federal Reserve’s payment system to be connected to the Fed payment system, with support from the crypto industry. According to The Information, Kalshi is considering launching sustainable futures to expand its cryptocurrency business.
Macro Events & Crypto Market Watch
1、According to The Block, U.S. Representatives Sam Liccardo, a Democrat, and Young Kim, a Republican, jointly introduced the Payment Access and Consumer Efficiency Act (PACE Act), aiming to allow eligible non-bank payment service providers to access the Federal Reserve’s payment system, including the Fedwire Funds Service, the FedNow instant payment service, and the FedACH payment processing service.
The bill will establish an optional federal regulatory framework managed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), requiring providers to maintain 1:1 reserves and meet risk and record-keeping standards. Crypto industry organizations have voiced support. The CEO of the Blockchain Association called it an “important step,” noting that digital asset payment companies have long been excluded from the financial infrastructure that competitors can use. The Crypto Innovation Council said it will push for responsible payment innovation.
2、Citing sources familiar with the matter, The Information reports that prediction market exchange Kalshi is preparing to expand its cryptocurrency trading business by launching sustainable futures contracts, marking a major shift for the company from its core event-based derivatives business into other areas.
Kalshi’s plan to launch will mark a shift in financial markets from binary event contracts to continuous finance markets, which could expand its appeal to retail and institutional traders. Kalshi is regulated in the U.S. by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This special situation could make it a compliant alternative to offshore crypto derivatives platforms.
News Roundup
1、Lee Lin to merge his Avenir Group trading team into Hong Kong listed wealth management firm Bitfire
2、Russia’s first reading passes a crypto law bill; the central bank will lead the market’s entry
3、Sui ecosystem protocol Volo discloses it was attacked, with losses of about $3.5 million
4、Crypto-friendly fintech company Revolut plans to go public at a valuation of up to $200 billion
5、Jefferies: A vulnerability in Kelp DAO may force major Wall Street banks to rethink their blockchain plans
6、Kevin Warsh, a nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve, supports crypto assets being integrated into the financial system; Warren worries it would become a “puppet on a string”
7、Bitmine stakes an additional 61,232 ETH again, worth $142 million
8、Etherealize updates its long-term ETH price forecast to $250,000
9、Iran says it agrees to pause military fighting, but the war is not over
10、Tense standoff between U.S. and Iran at the extreme; Iran refuses to attend negotiations. The U.S. extends the ceasefire period but maintains a naval blockade
Market Trend
1、Latest on Bitcoin: $BTC sees a short-term rebound, temporarily around $76,230; in the past 24 hours, $110 million was liquidated with the longs as the main driver, and the main liquidations were short positions;
2、U.S. stocks on April 21 saw wild swings amid the shadow of war. Although March retail sales posted the fastest growth in more than three years, and healthcare providers’ earnings reports were strong, market concerns rose because U.S. Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan, making investors worry that the ceasefire agreement would be difficult to continue after it expires on Wednesday. However, shortly after the close, President Trump again announced an extension of the ceasefire. Major U.S. stock indexes turned from red to black during the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 293.18 points, down 0.6%, closing at 49,149.38. The S&P 500 fell 45.13 points, down 0.6%, closing at 7,064.01. The Nasdaq Composite fell 144.43 points, down 0.6%, closing at 24,259.96.
(Source: Gate)
3、In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, using the current 76,293.90 USDT as the reference: if it drops to around $75,109, the cumulative amount of long liquidations exceeds $344 million; if it rises to around $76,941, the cumulative amount of short liquidations exceeds $213 million. The amount liquidated on the short side is lower than on the long side. It is recommended to manage leverage levels reasonably and avoid triggering large-scale liquidations when market conditions change.
(Source: Coinglass)
4、Within the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows totaled $2.03 billion, outflows totaled $2.08 billion, for net outflows of $0.5 billion.
(Source: Coinglass)
5、Over the past 24 hours, net outflows led in derivatives trading for $BTC, $SOL, $ETH, $CL, $BNB , etc., indicating there are trading opportunities.
Selected Views from X KOLs
Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Today I’m still chatting with many friends about the trend of U.S.-Iran fighting. Even though Trump says out loud that he won’t extend the ceasefire time with Iran, most people believe Trump TACO is very likely. After all, continuing to take action is not beneficial for the U.S. or Iran, and Iran’s hardline posture would probably make the U.S. very uncomfortable.”
“At the very least, Iran has definitely prepared for the possibility of launching another attack. If it really does launch an attack, it would be a negative for Trump’s next steps—whether for the midterm election or for intimidating Cuba. Actually, you can also tell from how this round of negotiations broke down: the main reason Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz is the fighting between Israel and Lebanon. When the fighting stops, Iran also showed a willingness to lift restrictions—even willing to unlock under U.S. sanctions.”
“I think this is already pretty good. But after Iran unlocks, Trump is still continuing to keep it blocked. That likely makes Iran uncomfortable, so Iran re-blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, which is also the main reason why progress in the talks can continue. WTI’s oil price is also back to around $90, as expected. This price was expected by the weekend, but it hasn’t been flattened yet. It’s just about eating some funding rates, then continuing to short at high levels.”
“Looking back at Bitcoin data: although risk sentiment has already been shaken due to the halt in talks, this scale is already within expectations. In fact, as long as there isn’t a renewed attempt to start fighting, the market probably won’t get overly bearish. There are two more days until the final ceasefire deadline. If we can keep the ceasefire, my personal upside on oil prices would also be quite limited. That’s why I’ve insisted on doing this.”
Today’s Outlook
1、UK March Consumer Price Index (year-over-year), prior value was 3.0%
2、UK March Producer Output Price Index (excluding seasonal adjustment, year-over-year), prior value was 1.7%
3、UK March Producer Input Price Index (excluding seasonal adjustment, year-over-year), prior value was 0.5%
4、U.S. last week EIA crude oil inventory change (ten thousand barrels) (as of 0417), prior value was -91.3
5、The U.S. and Iran plan to hold talks in Pakistan on Wednesday
