On April 25, 2026, Iran once again escalated its plan to control the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, Iranian Islamic Majlis lawmaker Behnam Sayyedi publicly stated that Iran has formed a comprehensive plan: in all letters and commercial documents, it would recognize only the name “Persian Gulf” and would not accept any other appellation; vessels and warships navigating in the region must obtain permission from Iran; and sovereignty over the strait would be fully held by Iran. In addition, ships identified as belonging to hostile countries may not pass, Israeli ships are absolutely prohibited from transit, and vessels that are allowed to pass must pay the relevant fees, with priority payment in rials.
Meanwhile, a Pakistan official said that in the second round of negotiations Iran took a tougher stance than in the first round, emphasizing that any plan to end the war must be implemented under Iran’s conditions—not under the conditions proposed by U.S. President Trump. On the same day, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that after a potential peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, Turkey could consider participating in mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz and would view it as a humanitarian responsibility.
Against the backdrop of this set of the latest developments, the market naturally generated a new question: under the dual pressures of Iran’s hardline stance and the U.S. side’s ongoing pressure, have the price fluctuation patterns of cryptocurrencies, gold, and crude oil changed? How should investors identify the new rules within them?
Gold Consolidates at High Levels
As of April 25, COMEX gold futures closed at $4,725.4 per ounce, while spot gold was $4,709.5 per ounce, down about 2% over the week. A notable new change is that gold’s reaction to the Iran situation is shifting from “a sudden incident that triggers a rapid surge” to “consolidation at high levels + sensitivity to the news cycle.”
The core logic behind this is that the market is accepting two seemingly contradictory facts at the same time: on the one hand, the systemic risks in the Strait of Hormuz (blockade, transit fees, exclusion of hostile ships) provide a firm base for gold above $4,700; on the other hand, oil prices continue to rise (Brent up 15.5% on the week), boosting rate-hike expectations and the U.S. dollar index, which exerts short-term pressure on gold. This “two-sided strength” pattern means gold has entered a new volatility range—any new developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations (such as the next round of talks held in Pakistan after April 25) could trigger more than a 2% intraday swing.
Crude Oil Volatility Intensifies
The crude oil market showed the most dramatic trend shift this week. As of April 25, Gate’s latest quotes show U.S. crude at $98, up 13% on the week; Brent crude at $106.5, up 15.5% on the week.
One issue worth watching is whether crude oil prices will repeat a historic breakout. Citi’s previous model suggested that if transit through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed for a month, oil prices could rise to $110 per barrel; if it lasts two months, global supply gaps could reach about 1.7 billion barrels, potentially pushing oil prices toward $130 per barrel. Meanwhile, the newly added clauses in Iran’s current plan—such as “prioritizing payment of transit fees in rials” and “excluding ships from hostile countries”—effectively increase the political cost and uncertainty of transiting the strait. The market is gradually pricing in this “chronic bleeding” rather than a one-time shock, causing oil prices to show a “stepwise rise”—after each round of escalation in diplomatic confrontation, the price center of gravity permanently moves higher.
In addition, the possibility of Turkey participating in mine-clearing adds a new variable to the future situation. Fidan said clearly that if a multinational alliance becomes a party to the conflict, Turkey will reassess its position. This means the parties in the game on the energy supply side are increasing, and volatility is unlikely to subside in the short term.
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $77,000
As of April 25, the price of Bitcoin was trading in a range of $77,500–$77,700, while the total market capitalization of the global crypto market remained stable at $2.59 trillion. A key new question is whether, amid the long-termization of geopolitical risk, Bitcoin is shifting from the role of a “high-volatility risk asset” to that of “digital gold.”
Based on this week’s data, Bitcoin’s decline (about 1.2%) is far smaller than gold’s (down 2%) and the energy sector of U.S. equities, and it has even shown some resilience against the downside. This differs from the historical pattern in which Bitcoin often crashes alongside risk assets during geopolitical conflicts. The market is beginning to discuss a new paradigm: when key energy corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz are continuously politicized, inflation expectations in the fiat currency system and capital-control risks rise in parallel, while Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins and its globally borderless transferability make it a cross-regional hedge choice. Of course, this shift still needs further data to validate, but on the Gate platform, arbitrage opportunities among USDT-margined gold futures, crude oil contracts, and crypto assets have clearly increased.
FAQ
Q1: In Iran’s latest plan, what specific countries are covered by “hostile-country ships may not pass”?
A1: According to Iranian Islamic Majlis lawmaker Sayyedi’s remarks, the list of hostile countries is determined by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council or the General Staff of the Armed Forces. In the publicly available information to date, the only clearly mentioned case is “Israeli ships are absolutely prohibited from passing.” Other countries that could potentially be included in the hostile range have not been formally announced, but the market generally watches the subsequent reactions from the United States and its allies.
Q2: If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, will Bitcoin break above $80,000?
A2: Based on historical data, Bitcoin’s price is influenced by multiple factors, and geopolitics is only one of them. However, if the blockade keeps global energy prices elevated, which in turn drives up fiat inflation expectations and tightens capital controls, Bitcoin’s hedge narrative could gain more acceptance of capital.
Q3: How can ordinary investors trade gold and crude oil contracts on Gate?
A3: The Gate platform offers USDT-margined gold contracts (code: XAUUSDT) and silver contracts (XAGUSDT), as well as crude oil spread contracts for WTI and Brent. Users only need to register a Gate account and complete identity verification, then in the “Contract Trading” section search for the corresponding trading pairs to choose 1–100x leverage for two-way long and short trading. Please note that contract trading carries high risk, so it is recommended to fully understand the margin mechanism before participating.
Q4: When will the next U.S.-Iran negotiations be held? What impact would it have on market conditions?
A4: Based on existing information, the U.S. and Iran are expected to hold a second round of talks in Pakistan in late April to early May. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragazzi has arrived in Islamabad, but there is currently no direct meeting schedule. If the negotiations release signs of easing, crude oil may see a short-term pullback, while gold and Bitcoin may face simultaneous pressure. If the negotiations break down (Iran insists on implementing its own conditions), crude oil could be poised to break above $110 per barrel, and gold may retest $4,800.
Q5: Would Turkey’s participation in mine-clearing reduce the risk premium for the Strait of Hormuz?
A5: The short-term impact is limited. Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan said clearly that Turkey’s participation in mine-clearing is conditional on “after a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran,” and if a multinational alliance becomes a party to the conflict, Turkey will reassess its stance. Therefore, mine-clearing operations are still a long-term, conditional humanitarian option and will not immediately change the actual risk of blockage affecting transit through the strait.
