Gate News message, March 31, 2026: bearish sentiment on Wall Street continues to intensify, and multiple market indicators show investors are placing large bets on a stock market decline. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index has fallen to an extreme level of 9, the lowest point since November last year, reflecting a significant drop in risk appetite. At the same time, data from Kobeissi Letter shows that short positions across different asset classes are rising in sync, with market defensiveness clearly strengthening.
More specifically, the median short position among constituents of the Russell 3000 index has risen to 4.3%, setting a new 15-year high and even exceeding the peak during the 2022 bear market. Energy sector pressure is even more pronounced: the short position in the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) at State Street has reached the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and its recent growth rate has set the fastest record this century.
The options market is also sending strong risk-off signals. Trading volume for put options on the SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust (SPY) has surged to 8.6 million contracts, the highest since the tariff shock in April 2025. Meanwhile, the leveraged long/short ETF trading ratio has fallen to about 1.1, nearing the levels seen during the 2022 bear market and the 2020 pandemic period—indicating that the influence of shorts is nearly on par with longs, and disagreement over market direction has intensified.
Analysts note that when sentiment indicators, short positioning, options hedging, and fund flows all reach extreme levels, history often sees sharp market reversals. However, given the current backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and mounting macroeconomic pressure, whether this pattern still holds remains uncertain.
Market participants are closely watching how stock market moves may spill over into risk assets. If risk-off sentiment continues to strengthen, digital assets such as Bitcoin may again become an important destination for capital rotation. In the short term, global markets may still be stuck in a high-volatility range, and investors should be wary of rapid changes driven by sentiment.
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