Polymarket US-Iran Ceasefire Prediction Probability Briefly Rises to 54% Before Falling to 16%

GateNews

2026-03-23 13:02:35

Gate News reports that on March 23, the probability of the “U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire before March 31” event on Polymarket briefly surged to 54%, then fell back to around 16%. Former President Trump previously stated that U.S.-Iran talks had made good progress and delayed military actions against Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran subsequently denied any direct or indirect contact between the two sides, calling such claims a “psychological warfare.” Israel announced that it had carried out airstrikes on Tehran.

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