Two companies dominate 97%, trading volume soars by 1100%: reshaping the landscape of prediction markets and the next wave of entrepreneurial opportunities
Author: MetaHub Research
Introduction: Redefining the Boundaries of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are platforms that allow participants to trade on the outcomes of uncertain future events, with contract prices reflecting the market’s consensus on the probability of those events occurring. They have demonstrated significantly higher accuracy than expert forecasts and polls in areas such as political elections, macroeconomics, sports events, cryptocurrencies, and corporate events.
At its core, a prediction market is an "information financialization" tool—prices represent probabilities. In high-uncertainty and highly subjective domains, prediction markets hold a distinct advantage.
By 2025, the total global trading volume of prediction markets is expected to reach approximately $50.25 billion. If we define maturity by trading volume rather than narrative, prediction markets will have truly transitioned from "short-term curiosity driven by events" to "sustainable markets" in 2025.
Kalshi has proven that the industry is not just "about having trading volume,"