Gate News update: On April 1, the U.S. will release its March ADP employment report tonight at 20:15 (known as “the little nonfarm,” a leading indicator for nonfarm employment data), followed by the release of the U.S. February retail sales month-over-month rate (known as “terrible data,” reflecting the strength or weakness of the consumer market). The market will get the latest data on the U.S. labor market and consumer market, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path may change accordingly.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that in February, US ADP employment figures and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI both exceeded expectations, indicating that the job market, which the Federal Reserve is more concerned about, is becoming more stable. The Fed has also signaled that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Coupled with soaring domestic energy prices due to the war, market expectations for the next rate cut have been pushed back to around September. If the February non-farm payrolls perform modestly or are overshadowed by the war, under the foreseeable scenario of a rebound in inflation, market expectations for the Fed's first rate cut will extend into the third quarter.

On March 4th, the United States will release the February ADP employment figures. Twelve institutions' expectations for the "small non-farm" data range from 40,000 to 75,000, with overall expectations being relatively optimistic.

Affected by the partial government shutdown in the United States, the non-farm employment report for 2026 has been postponed. Market judgments on the labor market now rely on ADP and ISM data, increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Risk sentiment has shifted to a defensive stance, with funds flowing back into the US dollar, and BTC has become a key indicator of risk appetite. Overall, the delay of non-farm data amplifies short-term uncertainty, and market focus is on risk assets and BTC performance.

On February 2nd, Bitcoin faced pressure during the first full trading week of February, with prices repeatedly oscillating below $80,000. Macroeconomic uncertainties and risk aversion sentiments are intertwined, and market attention is focused on a series of key US economic data and MicroStrategy (MSTR) earnings reports, which may determine Bitcoin's short-term direction. First is the US labor market signals. JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial unemployment claims, and Friday's non-farm payroll report will collectively influence market expectations regarding whether the Federal Reserve will shift to an easing policy in 2026. If the data generally weaken, it will reinforce expectations of rate cuts, increase liquidity imagination space, and usually support Bitcoin; conversely, if employment remains resilient, it may delay the policy shift, continuing to pressure risk assets.

BlockBeats News, January 8 — Last night, the United States announced the December ADP employment data, which shows a moderate recovery in US employment. As a result, the probability of a rate cut in January on CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" has fallen to 11.1%, down from 17.7% yesterday. The probability of a rate cut in January on Polymarket has also decreased to 8%, down from 10% yesterday.

BlockBeats News: The United States will release the December ADP employment data at 21:15 on January 7. This data reflects the US employment situation and serves as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in January has slightly increased to 17.7%.

BlockBeats News, December 5 — The US will release September PCE inflation data tonight. As the Fed’s most closely watched price indicator, this result will directly impact the December interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut remains at 87%. The market expects the core PCE annual growth rate to be around 2.8%, slightly above the target but continuing a cooling trend. If the data comes in below expectations, it will strengthen the market narrative of a “soft landing” and the formation of an easing cycle. On the macro level, yesterday’s weaker ADP employment data has made the market even more sensitive to this inflation result. Meeting or coming in below expectations will put pressure on the dollar and support risk assets; if above expectations, sticky inflation may push up US Treasury yields, weaken rate-cut expectations, and trigger short-term avoidance of high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with liquidity waiting for the event before repositioning. The crypto market continues its choppy trend, BTC

ING’s latest analysis points out that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is currently holding above 4% and has further room to rise. This trend is not favorable for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, as rising yields often indicate tighter financial conditions and declining risk appetite. Currently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury stands at 4.09%. Despite several economic indicators, including the ADP employment report, showing weakness—with US employment numbers shrinking for the third time in five months in November—yields have demonstrated notable resilience. In a client report on Thursday, ING stated that US Treasury yields have recently fluctuated mainly in the 4% to 4.1% range. “Although a short-term drop below this range is possible, once yields break above the upper end, the likelihood of continued increases is greater.”

In November, the US labor market deteriorated, with the ADP report showing private companies cut 32,000 jobs, with small businesses being the most affected. Employment data fell far short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.