Since the activation of the fee, Polymarket has accumulated $5.6 million in fee revenue.

Polymarket prediction market single account investment of $5,800 drives the probability of a specific option from 4% to 88%

On the Polymarket prediction market, an account invested $5,800 to buy options with a transaction volume exceeding $1.5 billion for the crypto payment card, causing the probability to surge from 4% to 88%. This change was driven by PaymentScan adding RedotPay data, increasing the transaction volume from $1 billion to $1.456 billion, approaching the preset threshold.

The high-winning-rate addresses in the Israel sector have bet $9,500 on Polymarket, predicting that the Iranian regime will not fall in June.

On March 11, reports claimed that Israel killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in an airstrike on Iran. Despite the dramatic turn of events, Mujtaba Khamenei has been officially announced as his successor, but he has not appeared publicly since the war began. An address in the prediction market is betting $9,500, indicating market confidence that the Iranian regime will not fall in June.

Two traders invested $13,200 in Polymarket, betting that the Strait of Hormuz will not resume navigation by the end of April.

Polymarket shows that two traders have collectively bet $13,200, believing that the Strait of Hormuz will not resume navigation before April 30th, with a current probability of 46%. The market generally believes that Trump hopes to end the conflict quickly to stabilize oil prices. Iran has also laid mines in the strait, increasing tensions.

An address on Polymarket bet $11,400 predicting a ceasefire between the US and Iran in April

On March 11, reports stated that on Polymarket, an address with an 88% win rate in the Middle East bet that the US and Iran would cease fire in April, totaling $11,400. Trump said the war is about to end, but after crude oil prices fell, gasoline prices did not return to pre-war levels. Analysts believe that the security risks in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to keep oil prices high.

WBC Team USA unexpectedly lost to Italy, and advancing still depends on math! However, the prediction market has already settled on "USA to advance."

In the 2026 World Baseball Classic, Team USA was defeated 6-8 by Italy, causing a major upset and instantly throwing the advancement situation into chaos. Although in reality Team USA needs to account for points lost, the prediction market Polymarket had already determined that the US would advance before the season even started, leading to quite a ridiculous situation. This is because the oracle's optimistic mechanism was not challenged, resulting in automatic settlement errors.

British political scene and crypto prediction markets intertwined: George Cottrell bets on the US-Iran conflict continuing until June

British politician Nigel Farage's assistant George Cottrell has attracted attention for betting that the US-Iran conflict will end before June 2026, despite currently incurring losses. This bet is related to changes in the Reform Party's stance, with Farage also beginning to advocate avoiding involvement in the conflict. Cottrell was previously convicted of fraud and has recently accumulated losses exceeding $800,000 in political and international event betting, but these are still limited compared to his earlier substantial gains. The growing ties between politics and finance add uncertainty to future developments.