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Strategy, in CEO Phong Le's latest statement, has for the first time acknowledged that Bitcoin may be sold off under certain crisis conditions. These two conditions are when the market value relative to net asset value ratio (mdNAV) drops below 1x and liquidity dries up. As the mNAV drops to 0.95x, liquidity risk increases, and market analysts warn that Bitcoin may need to be sold to pay dividends, although the board currently has no plans to sell.

In early 2026, the cryptocurrency market appears prosperous, but hidden risk signals are lurking. Despite the rise in Bitcoin prices, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest in two years, indicating an abnormal phenomenon of "rising prices with shrinking volume." Market liquidity is drying up, and order book depth has not recovered, so investors should be alert to the potential risk of a sharp correction. This situation could turn the current rally into an illusionary bubble.

In November 2025, the crypto market experienced panic due to hawkish policies from the US Federal Reserve and Bitcoin ETF outflows, with the Bitcoin greed index dropping to a low of 9. Although the market rebounded, long-term holders began selling off, indicating a crisis of confidence. Against this backdrop, asset transfers shifted from emotional investors to rational long-term holders. Historical lessons suggest that during extreme fear, re-evaluating investment strategies is necessary, and dollar-cost averaging becomes a prudent approach.

Bitcoin is facing a potential threat from quantum computing technology, especially the early addresses holding BTC that may be vulnerable to attacks. Although there is disagreement within the industry regarding quantum risks, multiple public chains have begun implementing defense strategies to ensure asset security. While the crisis has not yet arrived, proactive planning has become the current challenge.

Yu-Jen Hsu promotes Taiwan as a hub for the blockchain industry on the international stage, creating a bipartisan blockchain alliance and self-regulatory organizations, and issuing OCW tokens to gain international support. He emphasizes balancing regulation and innovation, values education and transparency, and plans for the New Taipei Economic Zone and the "Taiwan Global ID" project, aiming to attract global tech talent. Additionally, he is optimistic about the rise of security tokens and plans to integrate relevant legal frameworks.

JPMorgan predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period and may even raise rates in the future, breaking the market consensus on rate cuts. A strong labor market supports the maintenance of interest rates, leading institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays to adjust their forecasts and delay rate cuts. This change increases short-term uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, and market participants need to adjust their expectations for the future.

The "4-year bull and bear cycle" pattern of Bitcoin is gradually losing its influence. As the market integrates into the global financial system, supply and demand are no longer the primary drivers of price movements. The inflow of institutional funds has made macroeconomic factors the main influence, and Bitcoin has evolved from a highly speculative asset to a more rational store of value. This change indicates market maturity, but it may be bad news for traders hoping to replicate history.

Bitcoin is affected by geopolitical tensions, and the options market shows increased investor concern about downside risk. A large number of traders are purchasing put options near USD as a defensive measure, reflecting a cautious attitude toward short-term risks. USD has become a key psychological threshold, indicating the market's awareness of potential future price volatility.

Bitcoin prices have recently experienced intense volatility, retreating from nearly $90,000 to $88,000. The market is focused on Deribit's upcoming $28.5 billion options expiration. This adjustment has triggered a record high in open interest, affecting market sentiment. Market observers are paying attention to the "maximum pain point" and downside risks. Although short-term hedging costs have increased, bullish sentiment still exists, indicating a medium-term bullish outlook. At the same time, investors remain highly alert to future risks, suggesting that the market will continue to fluctuate.

The US cryptocurrency regulatory legislation, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, has been further setbacks due to the difficulty in reconciling multiple interests, and its review has been postponed. Coinbase strongly opposes the bill's provisions, and combined with banking industry and political struggles, the bill has failed to reach a consensus, leaving the industry's outlook uncertain. Future negotiations will be more difficult, and the confrontation between traditional finance and the crypto industry may intensify.

In the first half of 2025, a quiet competition for the ranking of public chains centered around stablecoins has begun. Stablecoins are no longer just a payment tool; they have become an important indicator of the health of the public chain ecosystem and a key battleground for major public chains vying for market share. Over the past year, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $245 billion, driven by fierce competition among 12 major public chains in terms of strength and ambition.
Stablecoins Become Market Focus, Public Chain Ranking Landscape Reconfigured
Stablecoins are no longer just a supporting element in trading pairs. As the most stable form of asset accumulation in the crypto market, they directly reflect each public chain’s ability to attract capital. In this silent competition for public chain rankings, traditional giants and emerging forces have already begun to clash.
Ethereum still firmly controls half of the stablecoin ecosystem, with a market cap exceeding $122.5 billion, accounting for 50% of the global stablecoin issuance. However, this leading advantage is being eroded—USDC issuance on Ethereum has been in the past

The People's Bank of China, in collaboration with multiple departments, is strengthening risk management for virtual currencies, reiterating strict regulation of virtual currency trading, with particular attention to regulatory gaps and potential money laundering risks associated with stablecoins. Meanwhile, Hong Kong supports the development of cryptocurrencies, creating a policy contrast, and China's financial stability policies remain unchanged regardless of regional differences.

Morgan Stanley announces plans to launch its own digital currency wallet by 2026 and expand crypto asset investments, marking a shift in the financial industry's attitude. As infrastructure improves, the boundaries between traditional finance and decentralized finance are gradually blurring, and institutional demand for digital currencies is rapidly increasing. Wall Street is accelerating its entry into the crypto space to avoid being left behind by the times.

A DeFi scam occurred within the TRON ecosystem, stealing $2 million, and the project was actually on the official whitelist. The DeFi product promoted by Justin Sun faced a security crisis, revealing serious flaws in the review mechanism. The community questions whether the whitelist is actually facilitating scams and calls for strengthened management and oversight.

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book report shows that US economic activity is essentially stagnant, with consumer spending contraction mainly concentrated among low- and middle-income groups, indicating a phenomenon of consumption polarization. The labor market shows slight softening, while price increases remain moderate. Business outlooks are diverse, but manufacturing still maintains confidence. The government shutdown has affected data collection, resulting in gaps in the report's data and increasing the complexity of policy decisions.