OnChainDetective

A trader turned an initial capital of 30 million USDC into 225 million USD, recently increasing ETH short positions during a market downturn, and opening new PEPE short positions. The portfolio includes ETH, BTC, and three other cryptocurrencies, with a total position of $332 million, demonstrating a pessimistic attitude towards the market at high levels.

Recently, there has been controversy claiming that the traditional bull market cycle of cryptocurrencies has ended, but this is a misunderstanding of the Wintermute report. The market is undergoing a transition from retail dominance to institutional participation. Although volatility has decreased, it does not mean the bull market is over, but rather that the market structure is becoming more stable and mature.

【Blockchain Rhythms】On January 21, on-chain data showed that a whale withdrew 8,000 ETH from a major exchange in a single transaction, worth approximately $23.72 million. This fund immediately flowed into the Aave V3 ecosystem. Interestingly, this whale has long been heavily invested—its ETH positions spread across two wallets amount to as many as 21,220 ETH, with a total value exceeding $62.87 million. Based on the withdrawal activity, the whale seems to be continuously increasing its exposure to DeFi lending protocols, reflecting ongoing institutional interest in the Ethereum ecosystem.

A seasoned holder active in the Ethereum ecosystem since 2016 recently deposited 14,183 ETH into a certain exchange, worth approximately $41.93 million. This is the first large deposit in three years. The address's past low-cost acquisitions have made it a focal point in the market.

Significant changes have occurred in the flow of funds in the crypto market, with Bitcoin's dominance increasing, and the market capitalization share of the top ten altcoins rising from 70% to 82%. Funds are concentrating in leading assets, and retail investors and institutions are becoming more cautious. Although the survival space for small and medium-sized altcoins is being squeezed, changes in market rules and improved liquidity may present opportunities. Overall, this reflects a gradually maturing market dominated by rational capital allocation.

Recently, ETH price has experienced significant fluctuations with an overall increase, but it has declined compared to the 19th. Trading volume has shrunk, and market activity is insufficient. Technical indicators show that bullish momentum is strengthening, and oversold conditions may present a rebound opportunity. It is recommended to base long and short operations on buy and sell targets as well as stop-loss levels.

On January 20th, the market experienced a deleveraging shock, with over $1.08 billion in long positions liquidated, affecting 182,000 traders. Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts were severely impacted, with technical weakness intensifying selling pressure. Global liquidity was tight, risk assets were affected, and funds rapidly withdrew from the cryptocurrency market.

Gold prices hit a new all-time high of $4,890, leading to significant profits for the whales long on PAXG on Hyperliquid. One of the largest longs made a profit of $330,000 by closing a 5x leveraged long position, while still maintaining a $3.58 million position. At the same time, the whale is also diversifying into other assets, indicating an interest in multiple markets.

The Japanese bond market has recently experienced abnormal fluctuations at a six-standard-deviation level, leading to a rise in yields on German, French, and US Treasuries, prompting global investors to reassess risks. This volatility not only affects the bond market but may also trigger adjustments in risk appetite for digital assets, highlighting the need to monitor the chain reactions among major economies.

Although Bitcoin's price has retreated from last year's highs, investors believe that its long-term logic remains unchanged, mainly due to market consolidation. He holds a cautiously optimistic view on Bitcoin's future trend, expecting a rebound in the range of $125,000 to $150,000, and remains confident in its long-term value.

In the FTX collapse case, former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison will be released early on January 21, 2026, shortening her sentence by approximately 10 months. As a key witness, her cooperation has attracted market attention, highlighting the importance of risk management and compliance in the crypto industry.

ChatGPT has launched an age prediction feature that assesses age by analyzing user behavior to ensure minors do not access inappropriate content. Adult users who are misclassified can unlock permissions through identity verification, aiming to balance compliance and user experience.

Recent market volatility has intensified, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declining mainly due to inflation concerns triggered by US trade policies. Investors should pay attention to policy developments, as trade uncertainties could impact the prices of risk assets.

MicroStrategy recently purchased 22,300 Bitcoins for $2.1 billion, demonstrating strong confidence in it. However, its stock price fell over 7% due to a new share issuance for financing. Despite Bitcoin declining due to geopolitical risks, institutions are still increasing their holdings at low levels, reflecting subtle changes in market sentiment.

【Crypto World】It's been a year since Trump took office, and Wall Street is indeed lighting fireworks. The old-school indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 are continuously hitting new records, and investor sentiment is clearly warming up. This strong performance of major global stock markets reflects a return of risk assets—simply put, the appetite of big funds has returned. For the crypto market, this is an interesting signal. The rising enthusiasm in traditional finance often attracts institutional investors to shift their focus to a broader range of asset allocations. How long this rally in the US stock market can last and whether it will drive digital assets to break further into the mainstream are worth close observation.

【Blockchain Rhythm】Ethereum recently broke below the key support level of $3000 amid market fluctuations. According to market data, this important asset in the Web3 world has dropped 6.73% within 24 hours, a significant decline. This volatility reflects the current market sentiment shift and offers new considerations for traders and holders focused on the Ethereum ecosystem. From a technical perspective, breaking below $3000 suggests the possibility of further downside pressure in the short term, and investors should closely monitor the upcoming support levels.

【BlockBeats】Spot gold prices surged strongly in the short term, breaking through the $4,740 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a new record high, with an intraday increase of 1.48%. This upward movement is not isolated—the Polish central bank recently approved a substantial plan to increase its gold holdings by 150 tons. Against the backdrop of global central banks continuously increasing their precious metal reserves, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has once again been highlighted, further driving prices higher.

Trend Research has been frequently trading on a certain exchange recently, re-entering 7,960 ETH, accumulating a total of 17,899 ETH. The total holdings have reached 644,600 ETH, worth over $2 billion, indicating that institutions continue to be optimistic about Ethereum.

Recently, Ethereum's trend has changed, gradually shifting from high-risk speculative assets to strategic allocation assets. By 2025, regulatory policies will become clearer, and institutions like BlackRock will increase their allocations. The fluctuations in ETF holdings reflect that long-term investors are dominating the market, with prices stabilizing around $3100.

Avalanche has recently performed strongly, with active on-chain applications and over 1.7 million daily active addresses, indicating genuine usage demand. On the funding side, buying pressure is dominant, with large investors continuously increasing holdings around $12, signaling long-term optimism. If AVAX can break through $15.36, it will open up room for an upward move.