Bitcoin quay trở lại 76.000 USD, Trump sẵn sàng « trực tiếp » đàm phán với các nhà lãnh đạo Iran

Bitcoin has returned to around $76,000 on April 21 after experiencing sharp volatility over the weekend triggered by US-Iran tensions. US President Trump said that the agreement currently under discussion between the US and Iran would be “better than” the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that he is willing to meet directly with Iran’s leadership; his remarks briefly boosted market sentiment. However, Brent crude oil continued to fluctuate around $90 per barrel, keeping Bitcoin under pressure from cautious sentiment.

Progress in the US-Iran war: Trump is willing to meet directly with Iran’s top officials

When Trump gave an interview to the New York Post on April 20, he said that if the negotiations achieve a breakthrough, he himself is willing to meet directly with Iran’s top officials; Vice President Vance (JD Vance) set off for Pakistan later that day to restart peace talks.

Regarding diplomatic channels, Mohamed Amersi, who has close relations with Iran’s negotiating representatives, said at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey that Iran hopes to reach a memorandum of understanding (MOU) as early as this week, in order to extend the ceasefire to Wednesday and lay the groundwork for subsequent detailed negotiations over the next two to three months. However, Amersi also noted that Iran believes its “ability to endure suffering” is far higher than that of the United States, and that it will not give up its missile program; the outlook for diplomacy still has major uncertainty.

Trump also told Bloomberg that if the negotiations fail to reach an agreement, it is “almost impossible” for him to extend the ceasefire again.

Gold and oil: Multi-asset markets swing sharply amid diplomatic signals

Spot gold swung violently on Monday; in early Asian trading it briefly touched a low of $4,736.87 per ounce, then rebounded strongly following Trump’s optimistic remarks, and ultimately closed at $4,820.21, with the intraday decline narrowing to 0.23%. US 10-year Treasury yields rose by about 2 basis points to 4.266%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. In terms of oil prices, Brent crude oil rose on developments related to the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying pressure on inflation expectations and creating downward pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin technicals: Holding $76,000, $79,000 is resistance

After Bitcoin previously tried to probe $78,000 without success and then pulled back, it fell to around $75,000 over the weekend; on April 20, with improved diplomatic signals, it returned above $76,000. Analysts noted: the resistance zone lies above $79,000, while the support zone is between $73,000 and $75,000. Positions with dense open interest in futures and options around $75,000 mean Bitcoin may continue to experience fierce volatility in both directions in the near term. A previous break above $76,000 triggered large-scale forced liquidation of shorts, but the subsequent pullback then sparked a new round of liquidations, showing that the forces of bulls and bears are still locked in a highly tight standoff.

Frequently asked questions

Why is Bitcoin so sensitive to the US-Iran conflict?

In the current macro environment, Bitcoin is traded as a “risk asset sensitive to macro uncertainties,” not merely as a safe-haven asset. Rising oil prices intensify inflation expectations, affecting the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, thereby suppressing demand for risk assets; geopolitical tensions also prompt traders to reduce their risk tolerance and cut exposure to high-volatility assets.

What does the US-Iran ceasefire agreement expiring on Wednesday mean for Bitcoin?

If, after the ceasefire expires, no extension or diplomatic framework can be reached, a renewed escalation of tensions may push up oil prices and trigger a market flight-to-safety sentiment, creating downward pressure for Bitcoin. Conversely, if an MOU or a clearer diplomatic roadmap is reached, it would ease the geopolitical risk premium and either support Bitcoin in launching a new attempt toward the $79,000 resistance zone.

Where are Bitcoin’s key technical support and resistance right now?

The main resistance is in the area above $79,000. $76,000 is the current near-term bull-bear dividing line that has just held. $73,000 to $75,000 is an important support zone. If this support is broken, market sentiment could deteriorate significantly, increasing the risk of cascading liquidations in the derivatives market.