Gate News message, on April 3, EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour said that although U.S. March employment data rebounded strongly, the labor market remains fragile. She believes that amid an environment of policy uncertainty, businesses are becoming more cautious, hiring intentions are cooling, and companies are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins and respond by boosting productivity rather than expanding headcount. Boussour expects the labor market in 2026 to be essentially frozen, characterized by selective hiring, capped wage growth, and strategic workforce adjustments while labor supply remains in historic-level tightness. She expects job growth to be slightly below the break-even level, and the unemployment rate to gradually rise to about 4.7%. Boussour added that given that the conflict in the Middle East is still ongoing, downside risks dominate, and the probability of a recession is 40%.
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