Macroeconomics

Riot Platforms sold 3,778 bitcoins in the first quarter, at an average price of $76,626, generating roughly $289.5 million in revenue, and retained 15,680 bitcoins. Miners were forced to dump coins due to rising energy costs and faced the impact of higher oil prices and increasing mining difficulty, which created structural selling pressure in the market, drove industry consolidation, and benefited larger miners with greater cost efficiency.

A report from the International Monetary Fund states that tokenized finance is a structural shift in the global financial system and highlights its risks, including liquidity crises, smart contract vulnerabilities, and procyclical effects. At present, tokenized assets are mainly driven by U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating institutional investors' demand for fixed-income products. However, fragmentation of tokenization platforms and regulatory challenges could affect financial stability. The report warns that if the pace of innovation outstrips regulatory capacity, risks will accumulate.

Goolsbee said that with the economy impacted by the shock from oil prices and inflation not yet having eased, rising oil prices could further worsen inflation expectations, bringing greater difficulties and slowing hiring. Companies are facing uncertainty.

Trump, in a speech on April 2, warned Iran, causing market risk sentiment to contract sharply; Bitcoin fell by about 4%, hitting a low of $65,789. Rising oil prices and a strengthening dollar index intensified macro pressure, further impacting the market. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may face a key support level at $64,000.

Due to the blockade of the Hormuz Strait, the spot price of Brent crude oil has surged past $140, reaching a new high since 2008 and triggering global inflation pressures. Tight spot supplies have led to fierce competition among refiners, causing oil prices to continue rising, which could further impact the overall economy and central banks' monetary policies.

On April 2, the spot price of Brent crude oil broke through $140 per barrel, reaching the highest level since 2008, mainly due to a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that disrupted global oil supply. This supply crisis put refineries under immense pressure, driving a sharp rise in crude oil prices over a short period of time.

Gate News update, April 2, Citibank released an oil market outlook report, expecting that in the base case scenario for the Brent crude (the international benchmark oil price) in the second quarter of 2026, the average price would be $95 per barrel; in the bullish scenario, it would be $130 per barrel. The report noted that global oil supply may be short by 4.4 million barrels per day; if some Gulf countries refuse to agree to Iran’s so-called “transit fee,” the supply shortfall could widen to 8 million barrels per day.

Gate News report, April 2, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest forecast, expecting the U.S. economic growth rate to rise to 2.4% in 2026. The IMF said that as the effects of tariffs fade and oil prices decline, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to fall back to 2% in the first half of 2027.

Gate News: In the latest update, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week from March 28 to April 2 was 202,000, below the market expectation of 212,000. The previously reported figure was revised from 210,000 to 211,000.

Gate News message: On April 2, the U.S. March Challenger job-cut report (Challenger Job-Cut Report, a leading indicator for the U.S. employment market) showed that the number of layoffs in the month was 60,620, compared with a prior value of 48,307, rising 25.5% month over month. At the same time, the March Challenger firm layoffs year-over-year rate was -78%, versus a prior value of -71.90%, with the year-over-year decline widening.

Rising U.S. consumer concerns about inflation pushed inflation expectations up to 6.2% in March, reaching a new high for 2025. Oil prices have broken above $100, which is expected to drive up the consumer price index, affecting economic activity and increasing pressure on the cost of living; it could also impact financial markets and investor sentiment toward crypto assets.

In March 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged by 60%, marking the largest increase since 1988, mainly due to supply concerns triggered by conflicts in the Middle East. The high oil prices intensify global inflation, putting pressure on transportation and manufacturing costs, while also affecting the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Analysts noted that this jump is unusual and said investors should watch how geopolitical developments could potentially impact the market.

Dahua Bank analysts predict that in the short term Brent crude oil prices will remain around $100 per barrel, then gradually decline. The situation in the Middle East is complex; the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and damage to infrastructure are affecting the price trend. Prices are expected to be $110 per barrel in the second quarter, followed by a gradual decline.

President Trump's aggressive stance on the Iran conflict spurred market volatility, causing oil prices to rise and Bitcoin to fall. Institutional and retail investors are pulling out, leading to significant ETF outflows and bearish momentum in the crypto market. The outlook remains uncertain, dependent on geopolitical developments and upcoming U.S. inflation data.

A Deutsche Bank research report shows that the three major AI systems believe AI’s impact on inflation is negligible. Among them, the probability that AI will raise inflation is higher than the probability of a statistically significant reduction, mainly due to demand-pull inflation pressures driven by an investment boom.

Gate News message: On April 2, Energy Intelligence Group reporter Amena Bakr said that, given the current situation, even in the most optimistic scenario, the Strait of Hormuz (one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes) will still be closed until May, reminding the market to prepare for the shock.

On April 2, the precious metals market pulled back. Gold fell to $4,682 per ounce, and silver fell to $72.79 per ounce. The crypto market volatility index edged down, while the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen. Global stock indices showed mixed performance, with both WTI and Brent crude oil rising.

U.S. President Trump plans to announce that Iran’s military targets have been achieved, the war is nearing its end, and the U.S. and Iran are in talks to negotiate a ceasefire. This situation is boosting market sentiment and pushing Bitcoin higher. K33 Research shows that Bitcoin ETF shorts have reached a historical high, and the market structure indicates signs that a bottom may be forming, suggesting a possible near-term uptrend.

Market sentiment is rising despite a 25% decline, signaling early accumulation behavior. Macro factors like easing policy and weaker dollar support altcoin recovery potential. Infrastructure and narrative-driven tokens may lead the next market phase. The crypto market has plunged into a

The global credit market is shifting from traditional vertically integrated models to a horizontally modular architecture, with artificial intelligence and blockchain becoming key technologies. Artificial intelligence can improve underwriting efficiency and reduce risk, while blockchain redefines the settlement process, significantly lowering costs. In the future, platforms with competitive advantages will leverage these technologies, and traditional institutions that lack technical support will face profit challenges.