Prediction Market

Polymarket has launched daily contracts tied to U.S. stocks and commodities, which are automatically settled using real-time price data from Pyth Network. The new contract formats include daily up-and-down contracts and settlement-price contracts, improving settlement efficiency and transparency. ICE is investing $600 million in Polymarket, signaling confidence in its potential.

Genius has published a new prediction event. Data shows that the probability that FDV exceeds $100 million after one day from opening is 74%, and the probability that it exceeds $200 million is 33%. At the same time, Genius announced it will complete the TGE by April 12, with a total airdrop amount of 70 million tokens.

Gate News reports that on April 3, Polymarket announced it has reached an exclusive prediction market partnership with Spain’s La Liga. La Liga becomes the first major European football league to partner with a prediction market platform. Following the agreement, official match prediction markets for teams such as Real Madrid and FC Barcelona will be available exclusively on Polymarket.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit on April 3 against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and prediction markets, and seeking to have federal courts bar state-level interference with prediction market activities that comply with federal regulations.

The Trump administration has recently intervened in a lawsuit involving the CFTC and the regulators of gambling in three states, challenging the states’ authority to regulate prediction markets. The CFTC argues that, under the Commodity Exchange Act, it has exclusive jurisdiction over these markets, and accuses the states of overstepping their authority in an attempt to change the nature of the wagering event contracts. This lawsuit reflects regulatory actions by 11 states regarding prediction markets, each facing different legal challenges. If a federal court sides with the CFTC, it will help provide legal protection for prediction markets; otherwise, it will increase operational uncertainty.

On Polymarket, one account staked $170,000 on the Mavericks to beat the Spurs, with odds over 70%. The Mavericks’ current record is 39 wins and 37 losses, ranked 8th in the Western Conference; the Spurs are 57 wins and 18 losses, ranked 2nd. Victor Wembanyama may be sidelined.

Gate News message, April 3, a representative from a prediction market platform, Mustafa, posted on the X platform, stating that in April the platform will provide over $5 million in liquidity subsidies for sports prediction markets.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the State of Illinois from regulating prediction markets, arguing that the state’s actions infringe on federal regulatory authority. This case marks the CFTC’s first legal action to challenge state-level gambling regulation. The dispute began when Illinois issued a cease-and-desist order to the prediction market Kalshi, alleging it violated the state’s gambling laws.

Based on data from a prediction platform, the probability that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security government shutdown will continue for more than 70 days has fallen to 8%, with trading volume exceeding $1.27 million. Trump said he is about to sign an order to ensure employee pay, praising House Republicans for their efforts on this issue.

YZi Labs, after EASY Residency Season 2, added an investment in the prediction market platform Predict.fun, with Susquehanna Crypto participating in this round of funding. Predict.fun has accumulated trading volume of over $1.8 billion, with more than 130,000 users, and completed the acquisition of Probable to expand into the Asian market.

Gate News update, April 2, according to an official announcement, the prediction market platform Polymarket has integrated Pyth Pro as the data source for its new series of traditional asset contracts. Polymarket will rely on Pyth Pro data to provide the daily rise and fall and daily closing markets for gold, silver, and major stock index ETF, and will ensure full transparency throughout via real-time price charts updated every second.

On Polymarket, the probability related to WTI crude oil touching $120 in April 2026 has recently risen sharply, and it is currently at 65%. The settlement rules for this prediction contract are: within the specified time, if the price reaches or exceeds $120, then it is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No".

Polymarket’s daily fees jumped from about $363,000 on March 30 to $995,000 on April 1, then fell to $899,000 on April 2. This increase was driven by the platform expanding its fee categories, covering multiple areas.

Prediction market Polymarket’s recent fee expansion has started to affect its numbers, with daily fees and revenue climbing sharply in the days following a March 30 price overhaul.  According to DefiLlama data, daily fees rose from about $363,000 on Monday to over $1 million on both Wednesday and

Polymarket, after adjusting its fee structure, saw a significant increase in its daily fees and revenue; revenue at one point reached $995,000. The platform faces intense regulatory scrutiny, but it is still seeking to expand and preparing for a new round of funding, with a valuation that could reach $20 billion. Future development will depend on balancing compliance with market activity.

The Australian Prime Minister announced that, starting in 2027, gambling advertisements will be strictly limited to reduce children’s exposure. The new rules ban ads from being shown during live sports broadcasts, and they also do not allow celebrity endorsements. Despite the tighter advertising restrictions, the ban has not yet been fully achieved. Meanwhile, a cryptocurrency prediction platform is facing a crackdown, traditional gambling exposure will decline, and legal developments need to be monitored.

Taiwanese investigators and prosecutors cracked the first Polymarket cryptocurrency election betting case, arresting two bettors. Because they admitted their wrongdoing, they were granted deferred prosecution, and authorities reminded the public not to place illegal bets. The case shows that identity can be verified through tracing the flow of funds, emphasizes the Election and Recall Law’s provisions and potential criminal liability, and calls on the public to comply with the law.

Paradigm is developing a specialized prediction market trading terminal, positioning itself as a key player in the booming sector. It aims to create a market-making desk and a prediction market index, enhancing its infrastructure and attracting serious institutional investment.