Trading Moment: The Market Faces a Key Year-End Week, Bitcoin Holds Firm at the $86,000 Key Level

Daily Market Key Data Review and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Watch

The market is holding its breath ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, with a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. However, contrary to traditional logic, since the start of the rate-cutting cycle in September, yields on long-term US Treasuries—the anchor for global asset pricing—have risen instead of falling, sparking intense debate over the future economic path. Optimists see this as a signal of an economic “soft landing,” while pessimists worry it represents a vote of no confidence from “bond vigilantes” regarding the US’s high national debt and inflation risks. Against this backdrop, seasoned Wall Street strategists like Bank of America’s Mark Cabana predict that to address potential liquidity shortages, the Federal Reserve may announce a significant balance sheet expansion plan of up to $4.5 billion per month in addition to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, China is also entering a policy “super week.” Major meetings and the release of key economic data such as inflation and social financing will provide new guidance for the market. In the AI sector, competition is heating up: OpenAI plans to launch GPT-5.2 ahead of schedule in response to mounting pressure, while earnings reports from core chip designer Broadcom and cloud giant Oracle, along with Microsoft’s CEO’s visit to India, will serve as key indicators for investment sentiment and the future direction of AI infrastructure.

In the Bitcoin market, short-term sentiment is cautious but long-term indicators remain resilient. Analyst Murphy, based on the MVRV indicator, predicts Bitcoin’s price may reach $85,000–$94,000 by December 31, and hit the $71,000–$104,000 range in early 2026, with $104,000 seen as the critical bull-bear dividing line. Several analysts see the $86,000–$88,000 range as key support. For example, Daan Crypto Trades notes that a break below this key Fibonacci level could see prices fall to the $76,000 lows, while Michaël van de Poppe believes holding $86,000 is a prerequisite for his bullish scenario—i.e., price breaking $92,000 and heading for $100,000. On-chain data is mixed: Glassnode points to continued weakening ETF demand and falling risk appetite, while analyst @TXMCtrades highlights that the “activity” indicator continues to rise. CryptoQuant data shows the selling pressure from long-term holders has been “fully reset,” potentially indicating underlying spot demand and market bottom formation. Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas offers a more macro perspective, reassuring the market that this year’s Bitcoin pullback is merely a normal cooling-off after last year’s extreme 122% surge. Bitcoin’s resilience—even after repeated sharp corrections and still hitting new highs—means it’s no longer fair to compare it to the “tulip mania.”

For Ethereum, short-term market sentiment is bearish, but long-term technical patterns are showing optimistic signals. According to Nansen, “smart money” traders are still increasing short positions on Ethereum on derivatives platform Hyperliquid, with net shorts exceeding $21 million. However, analyst Sykodelic sees a positive side in the technical charts, noting that Ethereum’s 5-day MACD and RSI have fully reset and are now forming a pattern that has historically led to significant surges, suggesting a market bottom is forming.

In the altcoin market, AI project Bittensor (TAO) is in the spotlight as it approaches its first halving on December 14, with daily token issuance set to halve. Grayscale analyst Will Ogden Moore views this as a major milestone toward network maturity, noting its strong adoption momentum, rising institutional interest, and the success of the dTAO mechanism—all of which could catalyze further price increases. TAO rose nearly 10% intraday. The weekend was eventful, with several incidents and figures drawing widespread attention. Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon’s legal case saw new developments, with US prosecutors recommending a 12-year prison sentence due to the “massive scale” of his alleged fraud, and US District Judge Paul Engelmayer set to sentence Do Kwon on December 11. News of this triggered a brief weekend surge of over 100% in USTC and LUNA tokens followed by a sharp drop, down nearly 20% in the past 24 hours. Also, Binance founder CZ’s tweet typo “DOYR” while teasing executive He Yi unexpectedly spawned a meme coin of the same name. Binance is also responding positively to community concerns, stating it is conducting an internal review of potential corruption related to token listings. Another headline from the intersection of tech and crypto: “China’s No. 1 GPU stock” Moore Threads saw its share price soar after listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. The crypto-related past of its co-founder Li Feng resurfaced, including launching the “Malle Gecoin” project with Li Xiaolai and a long-standing debt dispute with OKX founder Star involving as much as 1,500 BTC (now worth about $135 million). Star recently responded on social media, saying the debt issue has been handed over to legal authorities and the focus should be on the future.

2. Key Data (as of December 8, 13:00 HKT)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $91,596 (YTD -2.11%), daily spot trading volume $40.49 billion
• Ethereum: $3,134 (YTD -6.17%), daily spot trading volume $25.27 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
• Market dominance: BTC 58.7%, ETH 12.2%
• Upbit 24h trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, MOODENG, SOL
• 24h BTC long/short ratio: 50.54% / 49.46%
• Sector performance: Meme and DeFi sectors saw slight pullbacks, SocialFi and AI up over 2%
• 24h liquidation data: 112,699 traders liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $416 million, including $105 million BTC, $169 million ETH, $21.92 million SOL

3. ETF Flows (as of December 5)

• Bitcoin ETF: net outflow of $87.77 million last week, with ARKB leading at $77.86 million outflow
• Ethereum ETF: net outflow of $65.59 million last week, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading at $55.87 million outflow
• Solana ETF: net inflow of $20.3 million last week
• XRP ETF: net inflow of $231 million last week, marking four consecutive weeks of inflows

4. Today’s Preview

• HumidiFi: new token public sale starts December 8 at 23:00
• Stable mainnet to launch December 8 at 21:00
• The merged company of Twenty One Capital and CEP is expected to list on NYSE on December 9
• BounceBit (BB) to unlock about 29.93 million tokens at 8:00 am Beijing time, December 9, accounting for 3.42% of circulating supply, worth about $2.7 million

Top gainers among the top 100 coins by market cap today: Ultima up 7%, SPX6900 up 5.8%, Canton Network up 5.5%, Ethena up 5.1%, Zcash up 4.5%.

5. Trending News

• Data: Tokens such as APT, LINEA, CHEEL will see large unlocks, with APT unlock valued at about $19.3 million
• Weekly Preview | Fed FOMC to announce rate decision; Stablecoin public chain Stable mainnet to launch December 8
• Largest BTC short address on Hyperliquid is currently $17 million in the green, reduced position by about 20 BTC in 26 minutes
• BEAT team-linked wallet sent $1.2 million in tokens to CEX, suspected profit-taking sell-off
• Twenty One Capital transferred 43,122 BTC to a new wallet
• US SEC crypto working group to hold a financial regulation and privacy roundtable on December 15
• Bittensor to have its first halving on December 14, daily TAO issuance to drop to 3,600 tokens
• ZKsync plans to deprecate early network ZKsync Lite by 2026
• “1011 flash crash short-selling whale” now has long positions totaling $164 million, currently at a $950,000 unrealized loss
• Suspected Wintermute wallet accumulated about $5.2 million in SYRUP tokens over the past two weeks
• South Korea plans legislation requiring virtual asset operators to bear “strict liability” for hacker attacks, fines may rise to 3% of sales
• Average cash cost for public miners to mine Bitcoin has risen to $74,600, with total costs at $137,800
• Caixin: Last year, 3,032 people were prosecuted for crypto-related money laundering; building a crypto firewall requires protecting legitimate economic activities
• Farcaster announces strategic shift: moving from social-first to wallet-driven growth strategy